Top DraftKings PGA DFS Picks for Valero Texas Open 2022
Top DraftKings PGA DFS Picks for Valero Texas Open 2022
If there was such a thing as a “trap game” for golfers and fans alike, it would be the tournament that occupies the week before the Masters. Fortunately, the PGA Tour has placed one of its crown jewel events leading up to Magnolia Lane at Augusta National with the Valero Texas Open.
The Texas Open has operated for more than 100 years and has appeared on more different months on the calendar than it hasn’t. The field hasn’t always been one of the Tour’s strongest, but some very notable names will be tuning up for Augusta this week, such as Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau.
TPC San Antonio is the accommodating venue and poses a stern test for the golfers, especially if the Texas winds start whipping through the Cibolo Canyons. The par-72 Oaks course was designed by Greg Norman and Sergio Garcia. It is a fair track with plenty of risk/reward offerings throughout. The defending champion is Texas’ own, Jordan Spieth.
The key to nailing down a successful DFS lineup will come down to two major stats: Strokes Gained off the Tee and Par-5 scoring. Since the Oaks course is a par-72, there are four par-5 holes that the field will be desperately clawing at for birdies and eagles. The par-4 holes are a diverse group here, but the par-3 holes are treacherous. My DFS lineups will feature golfers who score well by setting themselves up for success with their tee shots and can bludgeon the par-5 holes to death, while surviving the par-3s.
When you sign up for the premium features of Team Rise or Fall, get $10 off your initial payment with PROMO CODE: BO and get to cashing in every DFS contest. RoF membership also gets a credit toward my favorite lineup-generating player pool software at Fantasy Cruncher. Let’s tee off.
Stick it Close: Studs to Target
Abraham Ancer (DK: $10,300; FD: $11,400; Y!: $40)
The pride of Mexico on the PGA Tour was actually born in Texas before his family moved back to Mexico for the duration of his upbringing. This is merely anecdotal, but Ancer does have a connection to the state of Texas to go with his torrid recent form. What I love most about Ancer is his 87% Good Drive percentage combined with a 51% Birdie-or-Better average on Par-5s. Ancer is also a very good scrambler, which comes in handy at this event when the winds pick up. Among the “super studs” over $10k on DraftKings, Ancer will get the full 45% exposure cap.
Si-Woo Kim (DK: $9,600; FD: $11,200; Y!: $38)
Kim is a very interesting golfer. Most DFS players will look at his dismal showing at the PLAYERS and shy away, since he’s also a whopping $2,300 more expensive this week to roster. As such, Team Rise or Fall is projecting him to carry an expected roster percentage under 5%.
Why are we on him? The simple answer is that he plays incredibly well at this event. Kim has finished T-23 or better at the Valero Texas Open in three of the last four years, including a T-4 in 2019. He is 10th in this field in Strokes Gained off the Tee and 6th in Birdie-or-Better percentage on Par-5s. The course fits his eye and his game. I would not be surprised to see Kim hanging around the top of the leaderboard all weekend.
Maverick McNealy (DK: $9,500; FD: $10,900; Y!: $38)
In a surprise to no one, NorCal native and Stanford standout Mav McNealy is among my favorite golfers again this week. McNealy is playing the Texas Open for the first time this week, but all signs are pointing to his game showing up in a big way in San Antonio. He is 10th in the field in Par-5 scoring and is one of the Tour’s best all-around players, coming in 7th in the field in Total Strokes Gained. McNealy was a birdie-making machine last week at the Match Play. He is riding a recent hot streak right through the Texas Swing and will still likely be in less than 10% of DFS rosters.
No Gimme: Tap-In Values
Mito Pereira (DK: $8,100; FD: $9,300; Y!: $36)
The one golfer that really sticks out like a sore thumb on the Rise or Fall PGA Study Hub is the Chilean, Mito Pereira. Like McNealy, this is his first appearance at the Valero Texas Open. There are very few players in this field that are better from tee to green than Pereira, despite his DFS price falling well below them this week. Mito is very good off the tee, but even better (4th in the field) on approach. Although his Par-5 scoring doesn’t jump out as spectacular, his overall scoring average compared to this field is among the best.
Brendan Steele (DK: $7,600; FD: $9,800; Y!: $30)
Playing Steele in DFS is usually accompanied by the need for antacids on hand. On the other hand, Steele has played well over the years at TPC San Antonio. This is probably due to his prowess off the tee, as Steele is second to only Rory McIlroy in this field in Strokes Gained off the Tee. This statistic plays a huge part in Steele showing up well at the Texas Open and in our analytics at Team Rise or Fall for PGA DFS this week.
The key with value picks is filling out the DFS lineup with golfers who are going to see the weekend by making the cut. Steele is as safe a bet as any in this price range.
Charles Howell III (DK: $7,400; FD: $9,000; Y!: $26)
When I was a youngster, I loved Charles Howell’s game. He was supposed to be the leader of the new wave of young star golfers that would challenge Tiger Woods. He didn’t quite reach that pinnacle, even dropping off the tour radar for a few years, but has re-emerged as a solid tour pro in the modern era.
Howell is a master around the green, but most of his appeal this week stems from his 49% success rate achieving birdie or better on Par-5s. The Oklahoma State grad is an efficient, wily vet who is still gaining strokes on the field at age 42. His value proposition this week for DFS purposes is extremely high on all three sites.
I will be with you for an entire PGA Tour season of DFS picks. I hope you join me in victory throughout 2022 and beyond. I promise to be a better DFS golfer than an actual golfer. You can find all of my musings on Twitter. Good luck and hit ’em straight!