Top DraftKings PGA DFS Plays for the 2022 BMW Championship

Top DraftKings PGA DFS Plays for the 2022 BMW Championship

The PGA Tour is funneling its players through the narrow “Hot Gates” like Leonidas did with the Persian hordes in the movie ‘300.’ The 125 that competed in Memphis last week have been condensed to the top-70 golfers for the BMW Championship in Delaware. DFS players seeking action must realign with a new mathematical equation. With no cut this weekend, there will be chaos on the 7,540-yard par-70 track at Wilmington Country Club. All 70 will have 72 holes to cement themselves into the 30-man field at the Tour Championship next week with $18 million on the line. Relatively speaking, DFS junkies have just as much at stake to wrap up the 2022 PGA Tour season on a high note.

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This very well could be the 20-max lineup dream week. The odds of winning a GPP with 150 lineups is always incredibly difficult, but darn near impossible in a limited field. I believe this is the week where 20 optimized lineups could absolutely slay.

PGA Study Hub Projections

My new best friend has been the Stats Model tool on the PGA Study Hub, where key metrics can be easily weighted to condense this field into an optimal bunch of core plays. The key stats that I have baked into my statistical model this week are Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG: T2G), three-putt avoidance, and birdie-or-better percentage (BOB%). Wilmington is an exceedingly fair course to all player types, which neutralizes most of the separating metrics. It also means that more weight should be put on recent form.

Think of Patrick Cantlay last season, who blazed through the FedEx Cup playoffs on a torrid hot streak after a more modest regular season. There are a few guys this week that definitely fit that script. From the first union colony and home of Joe Flacco, let’s tee off.

Stick It Close: Studs to Target

Jon Rahm (DK: $10,300; FD: $11,400; Y!: $48)

Truth be told, I am very surprised that Rahm hasn’t won more tournaments this season. He appears at the top of the leaderboard on a near-weekly basis and shows up as one of the best all-around golfers in the world. The former world number one is itching to get after a course that seems to have all the trappings of a bomber’s paradise and birdie bonanza. I have no qualms about attacking with full 50% exposure to the fiery Spaniard.

Will Zalatoris (DK: $10,000; FD: $10,900; Y!: $41)

Hot golfers stay hot, especially when the next tournament takes place at a venue that fits the eye. Zalatoris was recently quoted as saying, “If I built the perfect golf course for my game, it would look like this (about Wilmington CC).” Willy Z’s breakthrough victory last week in Memphis is only the beginning for the young star. He is primed to open the floodgates with another ball-striking clinic.

Collin Morikawa (DK: $9,400; FD: $10,600; Y!: $42)

There were signs last week that Morikawa, one of the world’s premier ball strikers, was back in his deadly form. I again will bank on the narrative that he has found the same groove that helped him take down two majors already in his career. The former Cal Bear can stand toe-to-toe with anyone in the world if the putts are falling.

Other Studs in My Pool: Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Cam Young, Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Joohyung Kim

No Gimme: Tap-In Values

Russell Henley (DK: $7,800; FD: $9,100; Y!: $20)

Here we are again with Henley. His form last week was not as sharp as the previous two, but it wasn’t from a lack of birdies. His MC in Memphis came down to not avoiding the big number. There is no cut this week, which gives me all the confidence in the world to roster the sixth-ranked player in my model at a value. Chalk isn’t quite as important this week, as leverage will be nearly non-existent in this field.

Mito Pereira (DK: $7,100; FD: $8,200; Y!: $22)

My values this week are nearly all masterful ball-strikers with a streaky putter. They each have the upside from tee to green to give themselves lots of looks at birdie or better. The key to Mito and the others is stringing together the good holes and avoiding the blowup. Pereira is another golfer who might not have made the pool if this was a cut event. Without that risk, I’ll shoot for the chance that he puts two really low rounds together and piles on the fantasy points.

Emiliano Grillo (DK: $6,600; FD: $8,300; Y!: $20)

Don’t look now, but Grillo appears to have found his ability to sink putts. If that trend continues in Delaware, the ultra-value could chase the title. Grillo is an outstanding driver of the golf ball and ranks fourth in the field in proximity from 150-175 yards, which is the range that the majority of his approaches will be at Wilmington CC. Similar to Henley and Pereira, the Argentine is upgraded considerably with the promise of four rounds of golf this week.

Other Values in My Pool: Keegan Bradley, Chris Kirk, Davis Riley, Cam Davis, Taylor Pendrith, Sahith Theegala, Scott Stallings, JT Poston, Kurt Kitayama