Top DraftKings PGA DFS Plays for the Rocket Mortgage Classic 2022
Top DraftKings PGA DFS Plays for the Rocket Mortgage Classic 2022
The PGA Tour schedule is quickly evaporating, with only five events left until the Tour Championship culminates the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Team Rise or Fall is scorching hot, with yet another massively profitable week at last week’s 3M Open.
The Tour rolls into the Motor City this week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The field is notably stronger than last week in Minnesota, hopefully spreading the chalk a bit more evenly for DFS players. Look no further than the premium content and data included in a subscription with the team of Rise or Fall DFS experts.
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I am keen to a return to “standard” golf at Detroit Country Club in MoTown, which is the first par-72 course with the traditional four par-5 holes the golfers have seen in over a month. The track stretches out to more than 7,300 yards, which is also right about the average on Tour. Scoring will be relatively easy again this week, with the winning score likely to blow past 20 strokes under par.
There are no unique advantages afforded to any one archetype of golfer, but the stats I have weighted the heaviest to build out my DFS player pool are Total Strokes Gained, Birdie or Better Percentage, Par-5 scoring, and Strokes Gained on Approach. An ancillary stat that will also factor in will be three-putt avoidance, in order to account for the heavily-undulated Poa-Bent hybrid green complexes. All of these statistics can be weighted and filtered to your heart’s content with the RoF PGA Study Hub.
Unfortunately for many DFS players last week, the chalk hit with Tony Finau’s victory. There is good reason to believe that a return to leverage-based success is in store for the RMC. Although my player pool will have sprinklings of popularly-rostered golfers, I am making every effort to limit my exposure to them. With my toe tapping to Gladys Knight and Smokey Robinson, let’s tee off.
Stick It Close: Studs to Target
Cameron Young (DK: $10,100; FD: $11,700; Y!: $41)
There is a growing consensus that Cam Young is quite possibly the best golfer in the world without a win on the PGA Tour. His rookie season has not deprived us of peppering the top of the leaderboard, nor of heartbreaking collapses. It is not lost on DFS players, with Young approaching 20% rostership.
He is still a very nice bet to go low in Detroit, since he comes in with the 5th most Total Strokes Gained per round in this field. In my 40% of lineups with Young, I will use the remaining five spots on leverage plays. He and Cantlay are the chalk, so you will need to gain your edge elsewhere if you want to win this week.
Keegan Bradley (DK: $9,200; FD: $11,200; Y!: $39)
I guess I’m old enough to remember when the idiosyncratic Bradley was the hottest golfer on the planet. The hype from hoisting the Wannamaker died off for a few years and now the New Englander is back to playing wonderful golf in 2022. The value proposition on all three sites is on par with my expectations for Keegan this week.
Bradley’s strokes gained metrics are nearly identical to Young’s, but at a steep discount and under 10% projected rostership. His twitchy demeanor and painstaking pace of play might be completely unwatchable, but we thankfully don’t need to watch the sport to win money at DFS.
Russell Henley (DK: $8,200; FD: $10,100; Y!: $39)
It is very easy to like Henley this week. Even though his exemplary form from early in the season has cooled off in recent appearances, Henley is a birdie-making machine with a well-rounded game suited for attacking a vulnerable golf course.
One question mark will be Henley’s putting, but he is one of the best approach players in the world. Detroit Country Club is the perfect course for a golfer like him. He is a wonderful value on both DraftKings and FanDuel and should only be rostered in about 10% of lineups.
Other Studs in My Pool: Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Maverick McNealy, Cameron Davis, Denny McCarthy, Davis Riley, Adam Hadwin, Webb Simpson, Mark Hubbard
No Gimme: Tap-In Values
Chris Kirk (DK: $7,800; FD: $10,000; Y!: $41)
Kirk should not be a sneaky pick, but it feels like stealing with the way he is playing these days. DraftKings and FanDuel are both offering Kirk at a great discount and with little fanfare at a 9% projected roster percentage. Kirk has not missed a cut since April and has four top-10 finishes to his name on the season. Only Yahoo! has marked him up (very steeply).
Kirk is one of only eight golfers in this field who have averaged gaining over one stroke on the field per round, and slots right in between Bradley and Henley in that category. If you’re looking for a guy with huge undercover upside, I’m whispering Chris Kirk as to keep it on the low-low.
Kurt Kitayama (DK: $7,200; FD: $8,600; Y!: $34)
The pride of Chico, California and UNLV won’t jump off the stat sheet, but if you zoom in on his performances in this type of tournament, Kitayama has the type of upside that makes him the ultimate dart throw. Although he struggled with his short game early on in his debut season, it has become the strength of his game.
Kitayama is a long hitter (309 yard average off the tee) and solid ball striker. The determining factor in his success this week will be establishing a hot putter early on. He does putt best on the Poa/Bent mixed surface and is only projected to be rostered at 5% or less.
Austin Smotherman (DK: $7,000; FD: $8,500; Y!: $20)
One thing about Smotherman that makes him a great flyer in DFS this week is just how aggressively he plays. He has really blossomed as a ball striker this season, gaining nearly a stroke per round between his tee shots and approaches.
His potential is what excites me; he is one of the only golfers under $8k on DraftKings this week with a 100+ fantasy point performance under his belt this season.
Always remember that the goal for DFS players is to never shoot for just scratching over the pay line. Another 100-point contest for a $7k player with 3% rostership is what ships the big GPP tournaments. A good number of my entries will use Smotherman to bring on the rain.
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