Type to search


TOP NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings | NFL DFS Week 1


Welcome to the Team Rise or Fall Top NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings article. It is here that we’ll look to identify potential spots that will allow you to pay down for plays that are expected to exceed their salaries and put you in a great spot to land on the right side of the cash line.

212. It’s been two hundred and twelve days since the last meaningful football game has been played and now we’re two sleeps away from kicking off the NFL regular season. This is Team Rise or Fall’s second year of offering NFL DFS content and @DFSnDonuts has continued to build on the team he’s created and added some great talent to the NFL product. Here’s looking forward to a fun and successful 2021 NFL DFS season.


NFL DFS Value PIcks

NFL DFS Value Pick – Quarterbacks

Mac Jones – New England Patriots

It was a huge surprise to many to see the Patriots cut veteran Cam Newton, myself included. However, who am I to question Bill Belichick. He’s ready and willing to hand the keys to the offense to the 15th pick of the most recent NFL Draft. The thing to remember here is we’re just looking for Jones to hit value, not put up a Mahomes type of performance. At his current price tag of just $4,400, it won’t require much for him to do that. The RoF Study Hub has Jones as the best value quarterback on the slate.

Sam Darnold – Carolina Panthers

New face in a new place. Darnold landed in Carolina after three mediocre seasons with the Jets under then-head coach Adam Gase. Darnold has shown flashes of being a capable NFL quarterback but was never able to piece it all together as the signal-caller in New York. Darnold will be paired with two young playmakers in Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, as well as being reunited with former teammate and deep threat Robby Anderson. A $5,000 price tag wouldn’t scare me away if you wanted to pay down in this spot. For reference sake, the RoF Study Hub ranks him as the second-best DraftKings value.

NFL DFS Value Pick – Running Backs

Mike Davis – Atlanta Falcons

There isn’t a whole lot of depth behind Mike Davis in Atlanta. Last season when Christian McCaffrey missed an extended period of time Mike Davis filled in admirably. It wasn’t quite a CMC’s level but he was able to have some quality games. The depth chart behind Davis gets thin quickly. The backup is Cordarrelle Patterson, a veteran who is a converted wideout. New Falcons head coach Arthur Smith was the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator for the past two years and we’ve seen what he was able to revive Ryan Tannehill’s career and we’re hoping he’s able to feed Mike Davis the same way he fed Derek Henry. Davis comes in at the low price of $5,400.

Chase Edmonds – Arizona Cardinals

The departure of Kenyan Drake has swung the door wide open for Edmonds to take over as the lead back in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. To this point in Edmond’s career, he’s been nothing more than a change-of-pace back that has yet to carry the ball more than 97 times in his three professional seasons. He’s currently listed as the starter according to the Cardinal’s depth chart. There is a concern that James Conner could take away from goalline carries away from Edmonds. However, on a site like DraftKings where the scoring allows for a point per reception, I love the idea of paying down for Edmonds ($4,600) thus allowing us to pay up at some other spots.

NFL DFS Value Pick – Wide Receivers

Marquez Calloway – New Orleans Saints

Calloway is the worst kept secret in all of DFS. Coming into week one the Saints offense is going to look a lot different than it has for the last 15 years. Drew Brees is no longer under center, the starter job was handed to Jameis Winston. The Saints will also be without their WR1, Michael ‘Slant Boy’ Thomas (I kid), who will be starting the season off on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list thus causing him to miss the first six weeks of the season. Callow showed a great rapport with Winston this preseason and with a $3,400 price tag, he’s practically a lock in cash lineups come Sunday.

Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers

If you’ve read any of my work you’ll know I’m a die-hard 49ers fan so you know I had to include the 49ers sophomore sensation Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk will look to build on his excellent rookie campaign in which he had 60 receptions, 748 yards, and 7 total touchdowns. I understand these numbers are not eye-catching at all, but when you consider how he got there – he had the likes of C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens throwing him the rock. He’s coming into the 2021 season with a healthy Jimmy G and a year of experience under his belt. I don’t mind paying the $5,700 price tag.

NFL DFS Value Pick – Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons

Two Falcons on the same list? Heresy! I trust our projections. The RoF Study Hub lists Pitts as the best DraftKings value at the TE position. The rookie will still have veteran Matt Ryan under center and Calvin Ridley taking the bulk of defense’s attention. It will be the responsibility of Pitts to be the security blanket for Matty Ice. To be honest, the $4,400 price tag Pitts is sporting is a bit high for my liking but if you trust in his athleticism, I don’t see why you can put him in your lineups.

Noah Fant – Denver Broncos

Fant ranks as the 4th best tight end value behind Pitts, Kittle, and Kelce. Two of the names on that list are no slouches. Fant has a new quarterback under center in Teddy Bridgewater. While Fant has been dealing with a lower leg injury since August 19th head coach Vic Fangio has been quoted as saying, “I don’t think he’ll miss any time in the regular season.”

I know there are some blemishes on each of the players on the list, but remember – you get what you pay for!

Any questions, concerns, or comments please feel free to hit me up in Discord or on Twitter @EdArias87