Top NFL DFS Value Picks for FanDuel | NFL DFS Week 11
Welcome to the Team Rise or Fall Top NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings article. It is here that we’ll look to identify potential spots that will allow you to pay down for plays that are expected to exceed their NFL DFS salaries and put you in a great spot to land on the right side of the cash line.
It’s week 11, it seems like the season is flying by quicker than ever. The last few weeks have been weird seeing chalk be in great spots and fail to live up to expectations. We want to continue to utilize the Team Rise or Fall tools to put us in the best possible position to succeed. I encourage you to tune in to our YouTube stream Sunday mornings to assist in your last minute lineup building process. Let’s dig in!
NFL DFS Value Pick – Quarterbacks
Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders
Carr is looking to bounce back from a miserable game on Sunday night against one of the league’s worst defenses in the Kansas City Chiefs. According to the Team Rise of Fall NFL DFS Study Hub, Carr is the best quarterback value with a price tag of under $8,000. He’ll face a Bengals team that allows the 6th most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Over the Bengals last three games they’re giving up an even 300 yards through the air. The Raiders carry an implied team total of 24 points, 11th best on the slate. I’m looking for a bounce back game here.
Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals
We’re also looking at the other side of this game. The Raiders just gave up a monstrous game to Patrick Mahomes who has struggled for over a month but found his groove against a weak defense. Minus this last game against Kansas City the Raider’s pass defense has given up approximately 248 yards through the air over their last three games. However, the Raiders do give up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. As luck would have it, Burrow is the second best value at the quarterback position of quarterbacks under $8,000.
NFL DFS Value Picks – Running Backs
Myles Gaskins – Miami Dolphins
Gaskins is in a prime matchup going against a Jets defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Gaskins has average just a shade under 19 touches, 18.80 to be exact, over the Dolphins last four games. Gaskins also carries a 61.62% market share of the team’s running back touches. At the low price of $6,200, I can see him being a staple in cash games considering the cost savings he allows.
James Conner – Arizona Cardinals
Same story, different day. Conner will again be the Cardinals workhorse with Chase Edmonds on injured reserve. Seattle offers up a porous run defense as they give up the 8th most fantasy points to running backs according to the Team Rise or Fall NFL DFS Study Hub. It doesn’t hurt that that the Cardinals have one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 26.25 points. In Edmonds absence, Conner has seen roughly 80% of the team’s running back snaps and is seeing a tad under 20 touches per game.
NFL DFS Value Pick – Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks – Houston Texans
I know, I know. The Texans are hot garbage but that means game script is going to favor the Texans passing game. The Texans face a pass-funnel defense in the Titans who give up the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers. Cooks is averaging 9 targets per game over the Texans last four games, good for a 24.53% market share of the team’s targets. The Team Rise of Fall NFL DFS Study Hub projects Cooks to see 9 targets on Sunday.
D.J Moore – Carolina Panthers
Moore started the year on absolute fire but has cooled over five of the last six games in which he only scored in single digits. The Washington Football Team allows the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. His production looks to be tied into Sam Darnold’s health, as Darnold’s health went, so went Moore’s numbers. Moore is still on the field for 97% of the team’s snaps. If I was a better man (Unfortunately, I can’t here in California) this game is going to go over the implied total of 43.
NFL DFS Value Pick – Tight Ends
Zach Ertz – Arizona Cardinals
Ertz is the best value at the tight end position according to the RoF NFL DFS Study Hub not named Kelce, Kittle, or Waller. Those are typically the pay up options but the price premium is something to be aware of. Kyler Murray has missed the las two weeks and has given way to Colt McCoy to lead the offense. Ertz has seen 11 targets over McCoy’s two starts. I expect the Cardinals to go back to their explosive selves should Murray be considered healthy enough to start on Sunday.
Dan Arnold – Jacksonville Jaguars
Dan Arnold has been a revelation for rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence. They’ve developed a good rapport as Arnold is averaging 8 targets over the last four weeks averaging 21.05% of the teams market share of targets. He’s averaging 10 FanDuel points per game over his last four outings.
I know there are some blemishes on each of the players on the list, but remember – you get what you pay for!
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