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Top NFL DFS Value Picks for FanDuel | NFL DFS Week 5


Welcome to the Team Rise or Fall Top NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings article. It is here that we’ll look to identify potential spots that will allow you to pay down for plays that are expected to exceed their NFL DFS salaries and put you in a great spot to land on the right side of the cash line.

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NFL DFS Value Pick – Quarterbacks

Teddy Bridgewater – Denver Broncos

This play is going to be contingent on Bridgewate passing through the NFL concussion protocol. He exited Sunday’s contest against the Ravens in the first half after being diagnosed with a concussion. As of today Bridgewater is the highest valued quarterback according to the Team Rise or Fall NFL DFS Study Hub. The Broncos will face a struggling Steelers team that is 1-3 on the year. The Steelers have also dropped three straight since upsetting the Bills back during week one. The Broncos and Bridgewater will look to take advantage of a Steelers defense that is giving up 23.2 points per game.

Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders

Carr started the year on fire and was in the early talk about league MVP (very premature in my opinion). I feel his true colors showed on Monday night where he struggled to move the ball against a solid Charger’s defense. This week Carr gets somewhat of a break playing at home against the Chicago Bears. This game is interesting in that Chicago will be without starting running back David Montgomery which should put a bigger load on rookie quarterback Justin Fields. I haven’t been overly impressed in what I’ve seen from Fields in his two starts. I’m thinking the Raiders defense should give ample opportunities to Carr to move the ball and build a lead against the Bears.

NFL DFS Value Pick – Running Backs

Najee Harris – Pittsburgh Steelers

The rookie is the do-it-all back for the Steelers. His season low touch count is 15 touches in week two, while his season high touch count is 28 in week three. The Steelers have shown that they are going to make this kid their feature back week in and week out. According to the Team Rise or Fall NFL DFS Study Hub, Harris is the best value at the running back position. The Hub projects him for 20+ touches which is something that all DFSers covet when selecting a running back. Their opponent this week, the Denver Broncos, possess a stingy run defense that gives up 70 rush yards per game. I’ll be interested to see how the Steelers utilize Harris.

James Robinson  – Jacksonville Jaguars

After a disappointing week one in which he split time with dusty Carlos Hyde, Robinson finally seems to be given the feature role. I know we’ve witnessed some terrible Urban Meyer decisions lately, but consistently giving Robinson the rock isn’t one if them. The RoF NFL DFS Study Hub has Robinson as the 5th best running back value on the slate. The Jags lost wideout D.J. Charm to a broken ankle so their is a possibility that Robinson see more action is the passing game. The Jags will face off against a struggling Titans team that dropped a winnable game against the Jets. The Titans are a pass funneling defense, which means they’ll live with teams putting up yards in the air but will concentrate on stopping the run.

NFL DFS Value Pick – Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys offense is rolling but the production isn’t coming from their wideouts. Zeke Elliot looks to have regained his form and ranks 4th in the league in rushing with 342 yards. Dalton Schultz looks to be continuing his career year from last season as he already has three touchdowns this early in the season. Then we look at Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Their production has seen a steep drop off over the last two games. In the Cowboys last two games, Lamb has seen a total of 8 targets catching 5 of them for 79 yards and no touchdowns. Lamb is too good a player to keep putting up duds like this. He’s the third best wideout value according to the NFL DFS Study Hub. This week is a division game against the Giants who’ve given up big numbers to wideouts already this season.

Calvin Ridley – Atlanta Falcons

Ridley rates as the second best value at the wideout position according to the RoF NFL DFS Study Hub. Through the first four weeks of the season he’s averaging 10.5 targets per game, responsible for a 26.92% target share for the Falcons. One would imagine there has to be some type of touchdown regression as Ridley accounts for only one receiving touchdown for the Falcons. This week they’ll face off against the lowly Jets who also have a 1-3 record. The Jets are giving up only 226.2 passing yards per game but they’ve also been blown out in their losses causing a more run heavy game script. However, with both teams being subpar, I don’t think either pulls away and am expecting it remain a close game. So I’m all for taking advantage of a wideout expecting 10+ targets.

NFL DFS Value Pick – Tight Ends

Jared Cook – Los Angeles Chargers

It was Jared Cook that led the Chargers in receiving on Monday night against the Raiders. Cook put up a respectable 6 catches on 7 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. Cook has 23 targets through four games responsible for a 14.56% target share for the Chargers. The RoF NFL DFS Study Hub projects him to see about another 6 targets this weekend against the Browns. The Browns possess a fierce pass rush with Myles Garrett and Jadaveon Clowney as their bookend rushers. I’m guessing the Chargers aDOT (average depth of target) is going to be shorter than usual with those two beasts coming off the edge.

Jonnu Smith –  New England Patriots

This is a tough choice for me. We know Hunter Henry has played fairly well for the Pats but they also threw a load of money Smith’s way. Smith has actually out-targeted Henry 21 to 18. Each tight end has scored once on the season. An interesting stat, no Patriot player has multiple touchdowns. The RoF NFL DFS Study Hub projects Jonnu to see about 5 targets and I’m willing to bet that one of them takes place inside the red zone.

I know there are some blemishes on each of the players on the list, but remember – you get what you pay for!

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