Welcome to the Team Rise or Fall Top NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings article. It is here that we’ll look to identify potential spots that will allow you to pay down for plays that are expected to exceed their NFL DFS salaries and put you in a great spot to land on the right side of the cash line.
This week begins the dreaded bye weeks. We have a “small” 10 game slate for the first time this NFL DFS season. We’ve seen chalk hit, but with a smaller slate let’s hope we can differentiate with solid lineup building practices.
Baker will face off against fellow Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray. This Browns versus Cardinals game carries a 50.5 Vegas implied total. The Browns currently have an implied total of 26.5 points. The Team Rise or Fall NFL DFS Study Hub rates Mayfield as an above average value. He’s coming off his best game of the season where he scored 23 FanDuel points. As of today the Browns running backs are a little dinged up as both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt missed practice today. We’ll have to monitor their status as the week progresses but if they were out (big if), I want all the Baker I can get.
The Colts had an incredible meltdown to lose on Monday night after leading 22-3 with about 3 minutes remaining in the third quarter. I don’t think you can blame that on Wentz who flashed his former self. He passed 25 of 35 for 402 yards and two touchdowns. This week they’ll face division opponent Houston at home. The Colts are 10 point favorites to begin the week. It isn’t a huge implied total at 43.5, but as 10 point favorites Vegas assumes the Colts will do a majority of the scoring. The Texans are allowing 28.2 points per game through five contests.
I was a huge fan of the rookie running back coming out of North Carolina and I hate seeing him split time with Melvin Gordon. There’s been nearly a 50/50 split between Gordon and Williams through the first five weeks – Gordon has 60 carries and 10 catches to Williams 54 carries and 11 catches. The Raiders are a bottom third defense allowing 134.4 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. Williams carries a $5,600 price tag on FanDuel which should allow you to fit in some other studs. It’ll also be interesting to see how the Raiders respond to all the off-field issues the team has dealt with this week as well.
We’re going to take advantage of another injury and plug-in backup Darrel Williams. Clyde Edward-Helaire left Sunday Night’s loss to the Bills with a knee injury which opened the door for Williams. He saw only five carries for 27 yards but also saw five targets bringing in three of them for 18 yards. The Chiefs face a Washington defense that has disappointed so far this season and will have its hands full with an offense that is looking to get back on track. Washington’s defense gives up an NFL worst 31 points per game. Williams in the 5th best running back value according the RoF NFL DFS Study Hub.
Pittman has been the Wentz’s go-to guy this season. He finally found the end zone for the first time this season on Monday Night’s loss to the Ravens. Through five games Pittman is being targeted 8.6 times per game. As was touched on in the Carson Wentz write-up we know the Texans defense isn’t one we shy away from. The Texans only give up 257 pass yards per game but that’s because they’ve been trailing most games which is why they are in the bottom five in the NFL in rush yards allowed. I expect Pittman’s targets to continue trending up as he and Wentz build rapport.I think the Wentz/Pittman with Brandon Cooks as a run-back will be a sneaky GPP stack.
We know David Mills isn’t Deshaun Watson, but game script should favor the Texans passing game. The Texans are currently 10 point underdogs. If the game plays out like expected the Texans will be forced to pass to stay in the game. Cooks has been Mills favorite target since Tyrod Taylor’s injury. According to the RoF NFL DFS Study Hub Cooks averages nearly 9 targets per game, accounting for a high 33.59% of the Texans targets. Cooks is also playing a team high 92% of offensive snaps.
I’m just assuming this game is going to be full of fantasy goodness. RSJ (Ricks Seals-Jones) is filling in for Logan Thomas who will still be on injured reserve for a few more weeks. I’m last week’s loss to the Saints, RSJ was targeted eight times bringing in five of them for 41 yards. He’s not a total punt but he’s a way to get exposure to a good NFL DFS game. The game has a 55.5 implied total so why not attack it?
This play is going to be dependent on the status of David Njoku. It was reported that he missed practice today with a knee injury. The uber-athletic Njoku depends on his athleticism to make plays and if he’s unable to go, that should funnel more targets Hooper’s way. Currently, Hooper is being out-targeted by Njoku 17 to 16. This shows us that Mayfield isn’t afraid to target his tight end. At his $4,700 price tag, I don’t mind taking a shot on Hooper.
I there are some blemishes on each of the players on the list, but remember – you get what you pay for!
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