Top PGA DFS Plays for the Wells Fargo Championship 2022
Top PGA DFS Plays for the Wells Fargo Championship 2022
Mexico is one of my favorite places in the entire world to visit. That said, my lineups last week looked like they went too heavy on the margaritas. Fading the chalk will bite you sometimes as a DFS player. I went without very much of wire-to-wire champ, Jon Rahm. Even with five of my six top players in contention, I needed Rahm to crack the pay line.
This week, the Tour is headed to the mid-Atlantic for the Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm. What was once a birdie fest in the early 2000s has been transformed into a true test of golf merit for a superb field. The par-70 has been stretched to 7,107 yards, traversing through what was once the largest short-horn cattle farm in the state of Maryland.
Treacherous bunkers have been added. Tall trees have been planted strategically to choke fairway sight lines and sharpen angles of approach. The tournament culminates on Mother’s Day, with some golfers leaving Avenel sobbing in need of their mom’s warm embrace.
TPC Potomac has but two par-5 holes and they are both monstrous tests. Total command from tee to green will be required for the golfers to convert birdies this week. Typical champions of this event have entered the Wells Fargo in the midst of a hot streak, so current form will also be very important.
These are just some of the pivotal data points available on the PGA Study Hub for premium Team Rise or Fall members. Enter Promo Code: Bo to receive a $10 discount on your initial payment and a $20 voucher to Fantasy Cruncher (where the magic happens). I would also love to chat it up in the Rise or Fall Discord about all things DFS!
Aside from Strokes Gained: From Tee to Green (SG:T2G), my emphasis will be on Strokes Gained Off the Tee (SG: OTT) and bogey avoidance. With a very strong field, including Rory McIlroy, I expect heavy chalk to be leveed toward the top of the scale, with unnecessary risk thrown into the value plays. I will be zigging and zagging to maximize leverage on my competition this week (I suggest you do the same). Let’s tee off.
Stick it Close: Studs to Target
Russell Henley (DK: $9,300; FD: $10,900; Y!: $41)
Simply put, the most expensive golfers this week are the chalkiest. Henley is only pulling moderate chalk because he is priced reasonably. In this price range, no other golfer is averaging nearly 82 fantasy points per game this year (actually not even 75).
Henley is known much more for his accuracy off the tee than distance (26th in driving accuracy) and is the best approach player on the PGA Tour. Add in his top-10 birdie average (especially on par 3s and 4s) and you’re looking at a golfer who was built in a lab for TPC Potomac.
Max Homa (DK: $8,600; FD: $10,600; Y!: $39)
I nearly went with Si Woo Kim here (he will be in the player pool), but Homa checks all of the same boxes with more style points this week. Very few players are as solid off the tee and on approach in this field as Homa. He is 32nd on Tour in SG: T2G and 24th in SG: Total.
Homa has also been playing solid golf recently. His last tournament appearance was a 48th place finish at The Masters. In five of his six starts before that, he finished top-17 or better. His strong showing at the PLAYERS gives me hope that he can thrive where shot-making is at a premium to post good scores.
Seamus Power (DK: $8,300; FD: $10,300; Y!: $40)
The Irishman isn’t just an instant classic Scorcese epic. This Irishman is one of the rising stars of the PGA Tour and shamefully priced on DraftKings. He has taken more than a month off the PGA Tour schedule on the heels of strong showings at the PLAYERS and The Masters. The interesting part about Power is that his advanced stats show up terribly when compared to his actual success on Tour.
Despite ranking 82nd in SG:T2G, Power is 38th in driving accuracy, 4th in greens in regulation, and 21st in scoring average. This is the mark of a golfer who knows his way around a course and makes timely putts. He is in line to be a great leverage pivot off the top of the board this week.
No Gimme: Tap-In Values
Cameron Young (DK: $8,000; FD: $10,100; Y!: $35)
Watch out for this guy. Cam Young is on fire right now. His third place finish at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago showed how dynamic he can be. At only 24 years old, Young is improving at a dramatic rate. He also narrowly missed his first PGA Tour victory with a runner-up finish at Riviera this year.
Young is one of the longest hitters on Tour, but he is also finding fairways. He ranks third on the Tour in SG:OTT and 30th in SG: T2G. A player like Young can break a course like this by merely putting the ball in play and attacking pins with shorter clubs on approach. At only $8k on DraftKings, I will be weaponizing him.
Keith Mitchell (DK: $7,800; FD: $9,800; Y!: $34)
In the same vein as Cam Young, Mitchell is an exemplary player off the tee. He is actually ranked second on the Tour in SG:OTT and 23rd in SG: T2G. Although not quite the bomber as Young, he is a birdie-making machine and averages 72 fantasy points per game on DraftKings. He has more top-10 finishes than missed cuts this season, including four top-15s in his last five starts (hot!).
Mitchell has taken nearly two months off this spring, which I think is great for establishing leverage on the field for a choice pick at the Wells Fargo Championship. He is an immense value.
Luke List (DK: $7,100; FD: $8,700; Y!: $36)
We chide the roster pick of Luke List all the time in the Rise or Fall PGA Discord chat. He is an enigma. I am going out of my way to bet on him ending his hellacious stretch of five missed cuts in his last six starts. Why? Because he is still one of the statistically best golfers in the world and nobody will be rostering him.
List has fallen off the map completely since winning the Farmers Insurance Open in January. Even still, he is an exemplary ball striker. List is in the top-30 in each category used to calculate SG: T2G, which puts him in 4th on the PGA Tour in that stat. Despite him being one of the worst putters in the field, he is one of the most dangerous DFS scorers when he is on the mark. If you throw a dart this week, make sure the tip is potentially sharp enough to stick.
I will be with you for an entire PGA Tour season of DFS picks. I hope you join me in victory throughout 2022 and beyond. I promise to be a better DFS golfer than an actual golfer. You can find all of my musings on Twitter. Good luck and hit ’em straight!