TOUR Championship at East Lake GC

TOUR Championship at East Lake GC

Benitt

8/31/20

Course Overview

The 2019-20 PGA TOUR season will come to an end at East Lake Golf Club. I want to say this is bittersweet and that I’m going to miss golf, but the new season starts up again next week. As we close the season out we will have the top 30 players in the FedEx standings battle for the FedEx Cup. That being said this week it’ll be a different format than you’re used to. The leader (Dustin Johnson) will start the week 10 under par already, which makes the leader 2 shots ahead of the second-place player in the FedEx Cup standings aka Jon Rahm.

East Lake Golf Club has a lot of history, it has been played for every Tour Championship since 2005. But, but please note that this staggering system was first placed in 2019. When looking past 2018 it was played normal, so everyone started at par. Unlike from 2019 to present the leader starts at -10. For instance, Rory McIlroy won last year after starting 5^th at 5 under par.

The course is 7319 yards, par 70 course played on Bermuda greens. The course is designed by Donald Ross so we’ll probably have course correlation with Sedgefield. The course has 74 bunkers and 6 water hazards. The par 5’s are easy for the most part. Holes 15, 18, and 5 have over a 50% birdie rate. However, holes 5, 10, 13, 16, and 18 have a 20-25% bogey rate. This week I’ll only have 3 picks available since only 30 players are on the field. Be sure to look for my CC model and additional picks this week.

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• Strokes Gained Approach
• Strokes Gained Off The Tee – Ball Striking
• Strokes Gained Around The Green
• Par 4s Gained
• Par 5s Gained

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Cash Play

• Webb Simpsons ($11000) – Webb would be starting in 4^th place at -6 before even teeing off. This course has Webb’s name all over it. In my Donald Ross par, 70 model Webb is ranked 1^st. He’s 1^st on APP, T2G, ARG, BoB%, and SG: Par 5. Webb withdrew last week so he should be well-rested and ready to take the cup. Webb gains 0.25 strokes on Bermuda greens and in the last 5 events he’s gained 3.3 strokes T2G, 1.7 ARG, and 1 on APP.

GPP Play

• Billy Horschel ($5700) – This is going to be a difficult play because Horschel will start at par compared to the leader at -10. So pretty much already 10 strokes behind. However, it is Billy Horschel season! Billy finished 33^rd last week at BMW with some horrible putting. The last time he putted this bad was at Charles Schwab (May 2019). Billy normally gains 0.3 strokes in putting on this surface. He’s ranked 4^th in my Donald Ross par 70 model. He comes in 1^st in SG: Par 4, 2^nd OTT, 3^rd T2G, and 5^th in Ball Striking.

Tournament Play

• Hideki Matsuyama ($9300) – Deki will start 10^th at -4 and he has been performing so well. Last week Deki finished 3^rd at BMW while gaining 6 strokes ARG and 8.7 strokes T2G. In my Donald Ross model par 70, Deki is ranked 3^rd. He’s 2^nd in Ball Striking, Approach, and SG: Par 5.

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– Benitt