US Open at Winged Foot DFS Course Preview for DraftKings & FanDuel
Technically this will be the 1stmajor of the season (season commenced last week at Safeway) and I couldn’t be more excited. We will be traveling back to the east coast (thank god!) to Mamaroneck, New York for the U.S. Open at Winged Foot. The last time the U.S. Open was played at Winged Foot was back in 2006 when Geoff Ogilvy won at +5 and then Winged Foot hosted the PGA Championship in 1997. The U.S. Open is sporadic at it’s played in multiple locations. Last year it was played at Pebble Beach and the year before at Shinnecock Hills. So pay attention when you’re looking at event history vs course history.
We will be having a full field of 144 players (Scottie withdrew). The course is a par 70, 7400+ yards designed by A.W. Tillinghast, however, the course was renovated back in 2017 by Gil Hanse. It’ll be played mostly on Poa Annua with a bit of Bentgrass. Coming into this week we should expect that most golfers will play over par. The course is expected to punish golfers who can’t hit fairways and the greens will be firm and fast. Besides that, the 1st cut of the rough is set to be 3 inches while the 2nd cut will be 6 inches.
The course will be played over 200 yards larger than in 2006 when it was last played. In 2006 we saw a 32-40% bogey rate in 10 holes! Only 6 holes had over 60% par rate with as little as 13% for birdies. There was only one par 5 that had a 40% birdie rate. Oh, and to make matters worse. This week’s cut line will be top 60 and ties, not the usual top 65. So let’s get ready for the carnage!
Dustin Johnson ($11500/$12100) – Are you actually surprised to see DJ up here? I avoided DJ for two weeks and boy did it cost me. DJ came in 2nd at BMW and then won The TOUR Championship. Now he’s at a major with a softer price tag? What more can I say? The last 5 events DJ has gained 8.2 strokes T2G, 4.7 strokes on APP, and 2.6 strokes OTT.
Jon Rahm ($11000/$11800) – I know, another high priced guy. It’s difficult to avoid someone like Rahm when he’s been playing superbly. He finished 6th at the Nothern Trust, 1st at BMW, and 4th at the Tour Championship. One other thing to note about Rahm – he likes to be challenged! He finished 33rd at RBC, 37th in Travelers, and 27th at Workday. Tournaments that are “meh” at best. Yet, he finished 3rd at WGC Mexico, 1st at Memorial, and 13th at the PGA Championship.
Webb Simpson ($9700/$10800) – I’m always a sucker for some Webb, but not for bad reasons. Webb won a U.S. Open back in 2012 and his recent form has been showing that he’s hungry for a big major to start the season. Webb is ranked 1st in my model and he also gains about a quarter of a stroke on this surface
.Xander Schauffele ($10100/$11400) – X has been playing fantastic and he also has excellent event history. Xander finished 3rd last year followed by a 6th placed finish in 2018 and a 5th placed finish in 2017. X is ranked overall 8th in my model and gains 0.3 strokes on this surface. He also gains over 3 strokes in U.S. Open events.
Tyrrell Hatton ($8100/$9800) – In our strokes database, Hatton has gained 1.7 strokes in the last 10 rounds in U.S Open events, and in my last 36 rounds model I have Hatton ranked 6th overall. He missed the cut in 2017, but then came back in 2018 and placed 6th. And last year he placed 21st. Hatton played very well for the FedExCup playoffs as he finished 25th at The Nothern Trust, 16th at BMW, and 7th for the Tour Championship.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8000/$9600) – My boy Fitzy! Feels good to mention Fitzy again and for very good reasons. He had a phenomenal season and finished in difficult events in great positions. Fitz finished 9th at API, 3rd at Memorial, 6th at St. Jude and even a 6th place finish at BMW. This all correlates very well for a tough event like the U.S Open. Fitz has finished 12th in both 2019 and 2018 at U.S Open events. Lastly, Fitz has gained nearly 2 strokes in U.S. Open events.
Dark Horse Play
Louis Oosthuizen ($7600/$9300) – Oosty always goes overlooked, but this man is an elite golfer ranked 25th in the world. He gains 0.3 strokes on this surface and he’s also gained over 2 strokes in U.S Open events. Oosty has excellent event history as he’s finished 7th, 16th, 23rd (twice), and 2nd in 2015.