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PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The Valero Texas Open 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. Make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.

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Course Preview

We’re finally done with Match Play and back to regular Stroke Play. Match Play is fantastic and all, but I love data. This week we head over to Texas before the most significant event, The Masters.

TPC San Antonio is 7400 yards, par 72, played on Bermuda greens. The most accessible holes on the course are the par 5’s with a birdie rate of 20-41%, while the 14th hole has a 2% eagle opportunity. The par 5 are the easiest holes. There are also two par 4’s that are as simple. The 5th and the 17th hole are just as easy.

However, that doesn’t come with some turmoil. There are four par 4’s that have a bogey rate of 21-27%, so keep an eye out for that. It’s also good to note that the course has 64 sand bunkers and three holes with water in play. The fairways are narrow, but the rough is only about 2″. Targeting bombers will be key this week, as well as golfers that can scramble.

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Off The Tea
  • Strokes Gained: Around The Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • P4: 400-450 Yards

PGA DFS FanDuel Targets

  • Jordan Spieth ($11,500) – With Dustin Johnson out, Jordan becomes the best in the field. Over on the Rise and Fall Study Hub – Jordan has gained 4.9 strokes T2G, 4.5 strokes on APP, and 0.7 ARG in the last five events. We’ve all seen Jordan’s game evolve this year, and this course can take him to a top 5 finish.
  • Ryan Palmer ($10,700) – Palmer is one of those guys with excellent course history here. In the last 9 years playing here, Palmer has only three missed cuts with four top 5 finishes. On the Strokes Gained Database, Palmer has gained 1.14 total strokes in the last 34 rounds at TPC San Antonio. Lastly, on the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Palmer has gained 1.1 strokes T2G, 1.1 on Approach, and one stroke OTT in the last five events.

PGA DFS DraftKings Targets

  • Brendan Steele ($9,100) – This year, I have mentioned Steele in many articles, and it’s with good reasons. Steele hasn’t missed a cut this year and is going to a course he’s only missed a cut once in the eight years he’s played it. On the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Steele has gained 2.1 strokes T2G, 1.9 OTT, and one stroke ARG in the last five events.
  • Chris Kirk ($8,600) feels like Kirk is in a smash spot this week. On the Important Stats Model – Kirk is ranked 13th ARG and 51st on APP. He’s also gained 3.6 strokes T2G, 2.3 ARG, and 1.2 OTT in the last five events. Lastly, Kirk has finished in the previous four years: 8th, MC, 13th, and 8th.

PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets

  • Charley Hoffman (1.4X) – Charley is coming in with great form. On top of that, he also has excellent course history. According to the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Charley hasn’t missed a cut in the last 9 years playing here. He actually has four top 5 finishes. He has also gained 1.99 total strokes over the previous 40 rounds at TPC San Antonio.
  • Sam Ryder (1.45X) – This is def an MME play, and probably having more than 10% of him is way over the field, but short term, he’s placed 2nd at Punta Cana and 8th at Honda. He’s also ranked 38th on Approach according to our Important Stats model.

PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The Valero Texas Open on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content

Study Hub

Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.

Course Correlation Model

One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.

Important Rankings

Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.

Cash, GPP, Core Picks

On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.

Showdown Content

This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.

Consistency vs. Trends

This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.

Putting Data

This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.Study Hub DFS Projections

Photo by Viktor Kiryanov on Unsplash


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