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Wednesday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 12-2

Let’s dive into my Wednesday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. I crunched 500 lineups in FantasyCruncher with NFL Study Hub projections for both sites and will dive into the different theories within those crunches. Let’s get into it!

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Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 40.5 PIT -10

Scenario 1: Game Stays Close

For this scenario, I’m going to focus on roster constructions of 3-3 on Draftkings and 3-2 on FanDuel. The image on the left will be DraftKings and the two images on the right will be FanDuel.

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For the Baltimore side, I’m focusing on Robert Griffin III, Marquise Brown, Devin Duvernay, J.K. Dobbins, and Dez Bryant. With all of the moving parts here, we won’t see Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, or Willie Sneed. I am assuming Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins are active. If they miss this game, Justice Hill will be added to my player pool.

Marquise Brown leads this current Ravens’ team in market share with 17% per the NFL Study Hub.

Luke Wilson stands out as a punt on both sites. He should see a lot of snaps at TE as Baltimore is depleted at the position.

For the Pittsburgh side, I’m focusing on Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Benny Snell, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Eric Ebron. The only notable inactive for fantasy purposes is James Connor. I’m anticipating Pittsburgh to pass often early and mix in the running game more as they get a lead.

Diontae Johnson is my preferred Pittsburgh receiver as he sees a 22% market share (NFL Study Hub) opposed to 17% and 16% for Chase Claypool and Juju Smith-Schuster.

Anthony McFarland stands out as a punt on both sites.

Scenario 2: Steelers Dominate

This is the most likely scenario given the spread and my crunches support that with 43% on DraftKings and Fanduel representing this outcome. I will be focusing on roster constructions of 4-2 on DraftKings and 4-1 on FanDuel.

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It’s going to be hard for Baltimore to stay in this game without three of their top weapons on offense. This outcome is most likely and I would go this route in Single Entry contests. Same priority targets as before but, we are seeing more of Anthony McFarland, Chris Boswell, and Steelers Defense (DraftKings only.)

Chris Boswell should get plenty of opportunities in the kicking game with the 25 implied team total for Pittsburgh. Given Baltimore’s implied total of 15, Pittsburgh Defense makes sense. We already established Anthony McFarland as salary relief.

For the Baltimore side, I prefer Robert Griffin III or Marquise Brown. This offense won’t score many points in this scenario. Griffin will, obviously, be the key to the offense and Brown is the best big-play threat.

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Scenario 3: Ravens Dominate

This is the least likely scenario on the board. I got 9% 4 man Ravens stacks on DraftKings and only 1 on FanDuel. I’m not going to touch on FanDuel here because it does not seem like the optimal approach given my results. These would be MME dart throws only for me. Again, I’m focusing on roster constructions of 4-2 on DraftKings.

Nothing too surprising here. We see that Robert Griffing III, Marquise Brown, and Devin Duvernay are essentially locked in. Duvernay being $3,200 on DraftKings helps the rest of the build. I would prefer J.K. Dobbins over Dez Bryant assuming Dobbins is getting his normal run.

Ravens Defense is the key to this scenario for me. If Baltimore was to dominate this game, they will need turnovers and plenty of sacks. If they let Pittsburgh get in a rhythm, it’s game over.

For the Pittsburgh side, I prefer Ben Roethlisberger. This scenario predicts Ben will be forced to throw a lot of passes and he spreads the ball around to all of his weapons.

FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups

For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. FantasyCruncher groups allow you to have multiple folders of groups. I’d recommend having a folder for each scenario that I described above and differentiating those groups throughout your 20 or 150 max contests.

Focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain Diontae Johnson with Ben Roethlisberger and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Steelers will go pass-heavy and Roethlisberger will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.

See ya in discord,
TMay

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