Welcome back for the Week 4 Final Ronin Notes and Strategy article for both DraftKings and FanDuel. This article is to be used in conjunction with my NFL Tiered Rankings and is a brief overview of how I plan on applying my rankings to my lineups.
It begins and ends with Josh Allen for me this week in both Cash games and SE GPP’s. Yes, I am biased. But I also think he has the highest floor and ceiling combination value-wise when taking pricing into consideration. Lamar Jackson, Russel Wilson, Kyler Murray, and Dak Prescott are either throwing for fewer yards, rushing for fewer TDs and yards, or in spots where I think they might not need to throw as much. Josh is currently the Alpha and Omega in this offense and I would not be shocked to see him be a part of all 4-5 touchdowns that Vegas is projecting for the Bills.
Alvin Kamara is producing as CMC did in 2019, but he’s priced at just $8K. Would you plug and play CMC at 8K in 2019? If so, I think the answer is to do the same for AK this week. Without Michael Thomas and Jared Cook, the already stat-padding receiving back for NO will continue to be peppered with targets. He has the highest floor-ceiling combination on the entire slate and only an injury would likely crush your lineup. Cash game lock. In MME, of course, some hedging is naturally acceptable and I will likely cap his exposure (it’ll be higher than the rest of my player pool though).
Mike Davis, James Robinson, Darrell Henderson are all nice cheaper options that could all rack up 20+ points this weekend. I’ll rotate exposure around them outside of Cook and Kamara. I’ll go out of my way to get exposure to Zeke, Chubb, and Drake as well. Drake is due for a big game and at 6K, he could be the steal.
In cash games, I am plugging in both Keenan Allen and Mike Evans. From there, I’ll likely try to grab someone cheaper and save some money. I plan on punting more or less at TE/DEF to save money since I am paying up for Kamara for sure already.
In tournaments, I will be focusing on the wide receivers, both 1’s and 2’s, in the top-scoring projected offenses this week. I’ll let the ratings separate individuals for me this week via the Study Hub more than anything else.
I will be trying to pay down at every opportunity I can get. This position has been just as volatile as a defense this season. I will grab Waller if I pay up at 5.2K as that is a fair price tag. I will likely just go all the way down to Trautman or Gronk otherwise. In MME, my pool given is all in play.
Another position that does not inspire confidence this week. I think there are some sneaky spots though like the Lions against Brees who can’t push the ball down the field and nobody can get open. If the Lions are playing with a lead, I would not be shocked to see a short route jumped and returned for a defensive TD. I like them in large-field tournaments.
Similar to DK, it’s Josh Allen in all formats for me and then closely followed by Russel Wilson. Allen is still playing like a 9.5K priced QB due to his dual-threat combination and he is just 8.6K. Kyler Murray would be in play here too if Hopkins were entering this game with a clean bill of health, but he’s not. Dak is priced fairly and would be a fine option if you were uncomfortable paying up for Josh/Russ.
This is too easy this week on FanDuel. Kamara is a plug and play at 8.8K to begin. Then you can probably skip the 7/8k range and go down to James Robinson and Darrell Henderson to grab your 2nd RB and Flex spot. They’ll both get solid work and red zone opportunities. Darrell is extremely appealing due to the 30.5 ITT of the Rams and James Robinson faces a defense giving up 180’sh yards per game on the ground through three weeks.
Same thing here as RB in my opinion. Pay up for the top offensive weapons on high-scoring teams and then pay down to the next tier or so. Plug in Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, and maybe roll with someone like Keenan Allen or Amari Cooper, maybe even Robert Woods for the touchdown equity in LA. But I would likely try not to have both Woods and Henderson in my same SE/Cash lineup unless I had Goff.
I hate this position this week. And I dislike it the most on FanDuel. The pricing is so bad. Waller is too expensive. If you have the money, fine. If you don’t, just pay down for the punt pricing. Even a guy like Trautman is in play on both sites for me due to him being the TE that will start for Brees this week on an offensive struggling to move the football outside of hoping Kamara goes full Madden on the defense.
I think most of my builds will have enough money to go get the Ravens. I love this. I think they bounce back after getting ripped apart by Mahomes. Now they face the Football Team and their inept offense that might not even have their best playmaker, Terry McLaurin fully healthy or even active. I would not be shocked at a pick-6 and a few turnovers this game. Otherwise, I am paying down and hoping for some sacks and turnovers if not paying up for the Ravens. In MME, of course, the player pool I posted is where I’ll be.