PGA DFS: Picks Preview for WGC Dell Technologies Match Play 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft
We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. Make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
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Course Preview
Match Play is in full effect this week as the world’s best come-to-play at Austin Country Club. This week is completely different than our standard tournaments. On our usual weeks, we have Stroke Play, which is when each player on the field plays each hole in an attempt to have the total lowest score. In contrast, Match Play is two players playing against each other, with each one trying to score the lowest on each individual hole.
As you can see, this is PGA’s version of College Basketball’s March Madness. To start this week, PGA begins on Wednesday instead of Thursday. Moving forward – we have our standard match play bracket where the winner, after 18 holes, moves onto the next round. If there are ties, they will be decided in a playoff format. Round of 16 & the Quarterfinals will take place on Saturday, and the final will conclude on Sunday.
Austin Country Club is 7100 yards, par 71, played on Bermuda greens. The easiest holes on the course are the par 5’s with a 36-48% birdie rate and a low eagle rate of 5%. The course actually has nine total holes that have a bride rate of 22-45%. However, there are three main holes that are very difficult on the course. Those holes are 2, 4, and 8. All three have a bogey rate of 25%. Fairways at Austin Country Club are nothing to worry about, they’re quite wide, so ball-striking is encouraged. The rough is only 2″ long, so not much to worry about there. Before we begin with the picks, please do note that Fanduel & SuperDraft are not participating in Match Play at the time of this writing.
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PGA DFS DraftKings Targets
- Bryson DeChambeau ($10,900) – I like Bryson here. I think he’ll obliterate these Par 5’s easily, and I think he’s very capable of beating everyone in his group (Tommy Fleetwood, SI Woo Kim, and Antoine Rozner). He doesn’t have much experience here as he’s only played once with a 40th place finish, but Bryson is redefining the sport altogether. I think he easily slides into the Elite 8.
- Paul Casey ($8,900) – Besides Oosty, Casey is the next in line for the most wins in Match Play. He’s had 10 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 years. His course history here is 9th, 17th, 9th, 51st, and 5th. His grouping this year is with Webb Simpson, Mackenzie Hughes, and Talor Gooch. You might be thinking, “Benitt, what about Webb Simpson?” Webb actually has a terrible record in Match Play. He has 3 wins and 7 losses in the last 5 years.
- Louis Oosthuizen ($8,100) – One of my favorite targets in this Match Play has to be Oosty. He has the most wins here with 12 wins and 3 losses. While also placing the last few years: 5th, 9th, 18th, 2nd, and 5th.
- Abraham Ancer ($7,700) – Ancer is one of my favorite values for this field. He doesn’t necessarily have an easy group, but it’s certainly not as difficult as the rest. Ancer is facing Hovland, Wiesberger, and Streelman. Ancer has only played once and finished 17th. What I like about Ancer is that he’s great Off The Tee and with his Approach shots, which should be able to dominate the field or at least get him into contention for the Elite 8.
PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content
Study Hub
Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a huge Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
Course Correlation Model
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Important Rankings
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
Cash, GPP, Core Picks
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
Showdown Content
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. Those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
Consistency vs. Trends
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last 4 events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
Putting Data
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.
Photo by Stephen Leonardi on Unsplash
