Will Kyler Murray have a breakout season in fantasy football in 2021? Let’s take a look at his 2020 campaign and his outlook for 2021!
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Per the Draft Kit Study Hub, Kyler Murray attempted 558 passes completing 375 of those passes for 3,971 yards and 25 touchdowns. On the ground, Murray attempted 133 rushes for 819 yards and punched in 11 touchdowns. That was good for a QB3 finish.
Per StatMuse, Murray ranked 8th in pass attempts in 2020. Of the top 8 Quarterbacks, Murray has the least amount of passing touchdowns and had a Touchdown% of only 4.7%. The only Quarterback lower than that in the top 8 was Matt Ryan at 4.2%.
Per StatMuse, Murray ranked 3rd among Quarterbacks in rushing attempts, 2nd in rushing yards, and 2nd in rushing touchdowns. Murray put up these rushing totals despite being limited with a shoulder injury from weeks 11-17. Murray tallied 87 rushing attempts prior to the injury before having to become less aggressive to stay healthy for the remainder of the 2020 season.
Kyler Murray definitely took a step forward in 2020 but, the passing touchdowns need improve drastically if he is going to break out in 2021.
How does Kyler Murray look for 2021? Let’s take a look!
Passing Volume – Passing volume has been a constant for Kyler Murray’s career. He has attempted 542 and 558 passes in the first two years in his career which ranked him in the top 10 both seasons. The passing volume will be high and the opportunity through the air will be there.
Rushing Volume – Murray saw an uptick in rushing volume in 2020 going from 93 attempts in 2019 to 133 attempts in 2021. Assuming Murray has a healthy season, I would expect him to rank among the Quarterback leaders in rushing attempts. The rushing floor should be there to make Murray viable on a weekly basis with a high volume passing attack.
Running Backs – I don’t expect Murray will lose any carries with Chase Edmonds and James Conner sharing the rushing workload in the backfield. Edmonds has never tallied over 100 carries in his career and Conner is transitioning from an offense with no Quarterback rushing attack to an offense where the rushing Quarterback is featured in the game plan. Kyler Murray is going to be the catalyst in the offense and he will have the ball in his hands as much as possible.
Pass Catchers – DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and Rondale Moore are going to be the primary aerial targets in the Cardinals offense.
We know Hopkins is elite and makes a ton of sense if you are looking to stack with Kyler Murray.
It is likely we know who Christian Kirk is at this point of his career. Kirk is solid but, more of a complimentary target.
I’m anticipating A.J. Green to be a red zone threat but, it’s hard to see a high upside with a Catch% under 60% the past three seasons.
Rondale Moore is a rookie and will likely need some time to develop but, looks like a quality target out of the slot. Moore should end up being a high volume target later in the season. A ton of upside here.
Touchdown Efficiency – It’s hard to imagine that Murray’s touchdown efficiency stays at a below average rate with the tempo and volume Murray will have. There is more talent around Murray now with the upgrade from Andy Isabella to Rondale Moore. If we see Murray improve to a 6% touchdown rate, we should be looking at a QB1 season for Kyler Murray.
Kyler Murray is a big stand I am taking in Best Ball drafts for the 2021 season. The passing volume will be high and the rushing floor will be consistent with his first-half 2020 totals with a clean bill of health. I’ll be betting on Kyler Murray’s upside in 2021.
Photo Credit: Vincent Carchietta