🏈 Yahoo NFL Week 13 DFS Picks
Welcome to the weekly Yahoo DFS picks article. The whole point of this article is to find the best plays to fit in your $200 team budget on the Yahoo main slate each week. Sometimes that means paying up, sometimes it means finding value, and sometimes it means taking some dart throws. Let’s dive in.
Kyler Murray @ CHI – $38
Murray hasn’t played since Week 8, so it takes a leap of faith to immediately insert him into your DFS lineup as the second-highest salaried quarterback on the slate. That being said, it often pays to be bold in DFS. Murray was averaging over 24 fantasy points/game through the first seven weeks. He’s had four weeks to heal up and return to his dual-threat play style that can always lead to a slate-breaking performance.
Tua Tagovailoa vs. NYG – $26
The touchdowns haven’t come in bunches yet, but Tua has quietly been putting up strong passing numbers lately. Over the past three weeks, he’s posted a 110 QB rating and an 80.5% completion rate. He’s only thrown three touchdown passes over that time, but if he keeps playing this well, the touchdowns could come in bunches, especially with DeVante Parker potentially back in the mix this week.
Russell Wilson vs. SF – $25
Before suffering his finger injury in Week 5, Wilson was a top-three fantasy QB in three of four weeks. He struggled upon return but mustered the ninth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks last week. You’ll be hard-pressed to find a QB with a higher ceiling than Wilson’s at his moderate salary, especially if a stack with DK Metcalf and/or Tyler Locket hits.
Matt Ryan vs. TB – $24
Ryan has been downright bad lately, but he did put up a few big performances earlier in the season. The Falcons are big underdogs at home, but the matchup with Tampa Bay has the highest expected point total of the week at 50.5. The Bucs have given up the fourth-most passing touchdowns in the league. Ryan could put up multiple this week, even if it’s while playing from behind in garbage time.
Jonathan Taylor @ HOU – $41
It’s hard to argue against Taylor, even with the highest salary on the slate. It’s tough to envision a scenario where he doesn’t find the end zone at least once given Indy’s implied point total of 27.5. This DFS slate is full of value, so it won’t be too difficult to find the salary space to pay up.
Joe Mixon vs. LAC – $34
Mixon faces off with Austin Ekeler in the same game, with the same salary. Honestly, they both seem fairly priced as stud running backs in a game with 50+ points expected. If choosing between them, I prefer Mixon, the home running back for the favored team. He also has the better matchup, as the chargers are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs on the season.
Antonio Gibson @ LV – $21
Yahoo must set their player salaries before the Monday night game. Otherwise, Gibson’s price doesn’t make any sense. He’s averaging 27 opportunities/game in his three games since the bye week, including a massive 36 opportunities Monday night. Those opportunities should turn into fantasy points this week against a Las Vegas team that’s given up the third-most fantasy points to the position over the last three weeks.
Alexander Mattison @ DET – $18
The Monday night game can explain Gibson’s misprice, but with it clear that Dalvin Cook would be missing time, I’m not sure why Mattison’s salary is so low. He’s averaged 21.5 fantasy points in his two starts this season, including 22.8 fantasy points against the Lions in Week 5. Mattison can be considered the free space in your lineup on this slate.
Jamaal Williams vs. MIN – $16
In the same game as Mattison, Williams is arguably just as much of a value with this $2 savings. He’s put up three top-24 fantasy finishes, even while sharing the load with Swift. This will be his first game for Detroit without Swift, and it’s reasonable to assume he’ll get the majority of the backfield work. He’s a fantastic salary-saving running back option on this slate.
Cooper Kupp vs. JAX – $38
Just like Jonathan Taylor at running back, there’s enough value on this slate to pay all the way up for Kupp. The Rams are huge favorites at home against the Jaguars, so not much needs to be said about the WR1 in all of fantasy football, who also leads the league in targets.
Ja’Marr Chase vs. LAC – $27
Chase hasn’t seen a big game since Week 7, but this is a bet on talent and opportunity. We saw plenty of big plays from Chase over the first half of the season, and he still has the ninth-most air yards in the NFL. I don’t like playing him together with Joe Mixon because if this game turns into an air show shootout, Mixon could be scripted out, and Chase could explode.
Keenan Allen @ CIN – $25
Allen’s 895 receiving yards are the seventh-most in the NFL, but he has just two touchdowns on the season. He isn’t a prototypical end zone target, but his TD total should be higher. For reference, last season he totaled 992 receiving yards and hauled in eight touchdowns. There’s no guarantee when his TD luck turns around, but the chances are as good as ever in a good game environment this week.
Diontae Johnson vs. BAL – $25
Simply put, you aren’t going to find a more consistent wideout than Johnson. He’s recorded at least 13 targets in six of his last eight games, including the last three in a row. He should rack up yardage with those targets against Baltimore, the defense that’s allowing the most receiving yards/game in the league.
Jaylen Waddle vs. NYG – $21
Waddle is the WR14 on the season, has the third-most fantasy points among receivers over the past two weeks, and finished as the WR1 last week. There’s no reason he should have just the 17th-highest salary on the slate, but here we are. Pairing Tua and Waddle makes for an affordable high-ceiling stack this week.
Hunter Renfrow vs. WAS – $18
Renfrow has been a DFS steal in three of his last four games and should be again this week. He’s averaging 7.5 targets/game on the season, and that number could see a slight uptick with Darren Waller likely sidelined. Renfrow will also benefit from the plus matchup with Washington, who allows the fifth-most fantasy points to WRs this season.
T.Y. Hilton @ HOU – $16
Hilton is as healthy as he’s been all season and comes with touchdown upside. He’s also been historically good against Houston over his career. In 19 games played against the Texans, he’s put up 1,798 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. I don’t usually like following these kinds of narratives, but it’s hard to ignore those numbers given the sample size. Even as Hilton has tapered off in recent years, he’s still averaged 87 receiving yards/game over his last three matchups with them.
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Kyle Pitts vs. TB – $17
Just like his quarterback, Pitts has been disappointing lately. His roster percentage is likely to be low, but it’s tough for me to pass on his value as the tenth-most expensive of the slate. He should operate as the top receiving option for Atlanta as they do their best to keep up with, or catch up to, Tampa Bay. You can play him alone, but if you take the shot with Matt Ryan, then Pitts is a must-stack tight end.
Foster Moreau vs. WAS – $11
While not quite as talented, Moreau is the direct replacement for Darren Waller in the Vegas offense. He played 100% of snaps and caught six passes, including a touchdown, the last time Waller was out. He’s the ideal salary-saver at tight end as long as Waller sits out.
Brevin Jordan vs. IND – $10
With a bare-minimum salary, Jordan is my dart throw tight end of Week 13. The Texan’s rookie has been trending upwards lately, finding the end zone in two of his last four games and playing a season-high 60% of offensive snaps last week. Another touchdown this week, and he’s well worth his $10 salary.
Miami Dolphins vs. NYG – $14
The Dolphins defense has been on a roll lately, finishing as a top-four fantasy defense in three of the last four weeks. Now they’re home favorites against the Giants in a game with the lowest expected point total of the week. Oh, and Mike Glennon, who has seven interceptions and two lost fumbles over his six games, is trending towards starting.
Baltimore Ravens @ PIT – $12
The Ravens are favored in a game with a low 44 point over-under, and they take on the Steelers, who just got stomped by the Cincinnati defense last week. They’re my favorite budget defense of the week.
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