🏈 Yahoo NFL Week 14 DFS Picks
Welcome to the weekly Yahoo DFS picks article. The whole point of this article is to find the best plays to fit in your $200 team budget on the Yahoo main slate each week. Sometimes that means paying up, sometimes it means finding value, and sometimes it means taking some dart throws. Let’s dive in
Patrick Mahomes vs. LV – $38
I get it, Mahomes has been bad lately. So bad that it’s easy to forget that he finished as the QB1 just three weeks ago against this same Las Vegas team. In fact, Mahomes has dominated the Raiders over his career, totaling 22 touchdowns over just seven career games played against the silver and black. His domination could continue in Week 14, and recency bias could keep his roster percentage down.
Lamar Jackson @ CLE – $38
Jackson has also been bad lately, but a bad week from Jackson doesn’t tank your lineup. He’s still been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in five of his last seven games. Jackson is about as safe as it gets for cash lineups, but I don’t mind mixing him into tournament lineups either. He’s put up three week-winning performances this season and is always capable of breaking a slate.
Russell Wilson @ HOU – $29
After a slow start in his first two games back from the finger injury, Wilson has now put up 20+ fantasy points in back-to-back weeks. He’s in a great spot leading the Seahawks into Houston as 8.5 point favorites. The Seahawks backfield is a mess, but we know that Wilson will continue to funnel targets to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who are each pushing a 25% target share on the season. I love stacking all three of them together in tournaments this week.
Ryan Tannehill vs. JAX – $25
It’s been a long season for Tannehill, and hopefully, he hit rock bottom last week in New England. He’s in a much better spot this week at home against lowly Jacksonville. Even better, it’s looking like he’ll get a top pass-catching option back in Julio Jones. Stacking Tannehill with Julio is an intriguing way to get different in large-field tournaments.
Austin Ekeler vs. NYG – $36
The top running back of the slate usually demands a $40+ salary on Yahoo, so getting Ekeler at $36 is a discount. Ekeler does it all. He has 19 carries inside the 10-yard line this season, more than Ezekiel Elliot and Joe Mixon. He also has 70 targets, which is just two behind the league lead at the position. He could see even more targets this week if the Chargers receiving corps is depleted by COVID protocols.
Alvin Kamara @ NYJ – $33
Kamara was a top-six fantasy running back in four of his last five games before suffering the knee injury that caused him to miss the past four weeks. He’s another player that gets it done on the ground and through the air. He’s garnered a 20% target share when active that season, and that isn’t likely to go down with the lack of talented pass-catchers in New Orleans. Best of all, he has an ideal matchup in his return against a Jets team that allows the most fantasy points/game to running backs.
Antonio Gibson vs. DAL – $26
Gibson has been the definition of a workhorse running back lately, averaging 27.5 opportunities in the past four weeks since Washington’s bye. He matches up with Dallas for the first time this season, so it’s worth noting how dominant he was against them a year ago. In two games against the Cowboys last season, Gibson racked up 243 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Ezekiel Elliot @ WAS – $20
Zeke’s salary was already probably too cheap, but the recent revelation that Tony Pollard suffered a torn plantar fascia last week certainly boosts his value. Even though he’s looked less than stellar lately, Elliot could be in line for a full workload again, potentially including more valuable work in the passing game.
Josh Jacobs @ KC – $17
Jacobs is officially the Yahoo pricing glitch of the week. He has the 22nd highest running back salary on the slate, even though he’s finished top-ten at the position in back-to-back weeks. Last week he set career highs in snap rate (85%) and targets (9) after Kenyan Drake suffered a season-ending broken ankle. The fact that he carries the same salary as Rex Burkhead, Dontrell Hilliard, and Darrell Williams is hard to comprehend.
JaMychal Hasty @ CIN – $11
Playing Hasty is completely dependent on the status of the rest of the San Fransisco backfield. Both Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson Jr. are dealing with injuries that could keep them out this week, and even Trey Sermon is on IR. If Hasty is the last man standing in the Niners backfield Sunday, he becomes the free square play of the week.
Don’t forget to deep dive the entire slate with this week’s Bottom of the Barrel!
CeeDee Lamb @ WAS – $30
Wide receivers get ugly fast on this slate, so it’s worth paying up for some studs. Lamb is the safest of the bunch. With a 22% targets share, he’s clearly the alpha wideout in the pass-happy Dallas offense. Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are fine tournament fliers, but Lamb comes with both the high-floor safety for cash games and the slate-breaking ceiling for tourneys.
Tyreek Hill vs. LV – $30
Hill is coming off a down game, but if you’ve tracked his fantasy career, you know he has a few of these dud performances each season. You also know he typically bounces back in a big way. He finished with just 7.2 fantasy points back in Week 3, then followed it up with 42.1 in Week 4. He posted just 5.3 fantasy points in Week 9, then went for 24 in Week 10. After posting just 3.2 fantasy points last week, don’t be surprised if he puts up another big game here in Week 14.
Stefon Diggs @ TB – $29
Diggs had been putting up consistent fantasy numbers for six consecutive weeks before playing in wild and windy Buffalo last Monday night. Things should be back to normal this week down in Tampa Bay, in a game with the highest expected point total on the slate (53.5). Plenty of targets should be headed his way as the Bills try to keep pace with Brady and the Buccaneers.
Terry McLaurin vs. DAL – $24
McLaurin is my favorite receiver for tournaments this week. He’s been outside the top-40 fantasy wideouts in consecutive weeks, but he has a juicy matchup with Dallas this week. The Cowboys have given up the second-most fantasy points to wideouts over the past three weeks. The combination of McLaurin’s talent, his matchup, his 26% target share, and his third-highest 1,303 air yards, makes the perfect recipe for a blowup game this week.
Russell Gage @ CAR – $14
There aren’t many options in the Atlanta offense right now, which has led to Gage seeing 27 targets over the past three weeks. Those targets have resulted in him finishing as a top-12 fantasy wideout in back-to-back weeks. The matchup with Carolina isn’t ideal, but at just a $14 salary, he’s an affordable wideout that should continue to see plenty of volume.
Cortland Sutton vs. DET – $13
Sutton has been absolutely dreadful for five consecutive weeks, so rostering him comes with plenty of risk. I mention him here because he still carries a multi-touchdown ceiling against the lowly Lions. He also has the tenth-most air yards in the league, slightly behind Copper Kupp and just ahead of Tyler Lockett and Ja’Marr Chase. He’s a tournament dart throw that would pay off in a big way if positive regression hits.
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Mark Andrews @ CLE – $23
It’s rare to find a tight end averaging double-digit targets, but Andrews has been nearing that threshold. He’s seen 9.4 targets/game over the last five weeks, more than any other tight end over that span. There’s a log jam at the $23 price point for tight ends this week, but Andrews is by far my favorite of the bunch.
Austin Hooper vs. BAL – $12
With David Njoku in doubt for this week’s game and Harrison Bryant already ruled out, Hooper could be the last tight end standing in Cleveland on Sunday. He doesn’t come with a massive ceiling, but he won’t have a problem paying off his bargain salary with a handful of catches or, better yet, his third receiving touchdown of the season.
James O’Shaughnessy @ TEN – $10
Not only is O’Shaughnessy the bare minimum salary this week, but you have to scroll WAY down to find him. He’s played on 74% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps and seen 11 targets over the last two weeks, so he makes for a perfect dart-throw tight end against the Titans this week.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. NYG – $13
The Chargers have some elite playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, but more importantly, they take on Mike Glennon this week. Glennon compiled a 53.9 quarterback rating last week while getting sacked three times and throwing a pick. The Los Angeles defense should benefit from a similar performance this week.
New York Jets vs. NO – $10
With Taysom Hill starting at quarterback for the Saints, I’m perfectly fine saving salary with the bare minimum priced Jets defense at home. Hill threw four picks and was sacked twice last week. Now he’s dealing with an injured finger, so there’s plenty of turnover upside for New York.
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