🏈 Yahoo NFL Week 15 DFS Picks
Welcome to the weekly Yahoo DFS picks article. The whole point of this article is to find the best plays to fit in your $200 team budget on the Yahoo main slate each week. Sometimes that means paying up, sometimes it means finding value, and sometimes it means taking some dart throws. Let’s dive in.
Kyler Murray @ DET – $40
Two weeks ago, Murray finished as the top-scoring DFS quarterback despite throwing for just 123 yards on only 18 pass attempts. Last week he threw for more than triple the passing yards but finished as QB13 on the week. The difference? Touchdowns. He totaled four in Week 13 but none in Week 14. This week he should be able to find the end zone multiple times against a Detroit team that’s allowed the fourth-most points in the NFL this season.
Josh Allen vs. CAR – $34
Allen just led a furious comeback to nearly beat Tampa Bay last week, and it resulted in him scoring more fantasy points than any other quarterback on the slate. For some reason, that caused his salary to drop down to the fourth-most expensive quarterback of Week 15. That seems like a nice discount for a quarterback with arguably the highest ceiling on the slate. Allen should be considered matchup-proof at this point, and a home game against the Panthers isn’t going to scare me off him.
Aaron Rodgers @ BAL – $32
This week Rodgers is facing a Baltimore secondary that’s been obliterated by injuries. If that isn’t enough, he’s also been on fire lately. He’s averaging nearly 30 fantasy points over his last three games played, more than any other quarterback in the league. A red-hot Rodgers facing a second-string secondary is something I’m very interested in on this slate.
Jarred Goff vs. ARI – $20
You have to scroll way down to find Goff. In fact, to get all the way down to Goff, you have to scroll past no-name quarterbacks like Will Grier, Kurt Benkert, and Trace McSorely. It’s extremely risky to roll out a lineup with Goff, but he will be rostered in nearly zero percent of tournament lineups. He’s topped 20 fantasy points three times this season, which would be more than enough to pay off his minimum salary and allow you to construct a completely unique lineup.
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Najee Harris vs. TEN – $25
Harris is one of the safest options in fantasy football. He’s averaging 18.2 rush attempts/game and carries a 15% team target share. The only time Harris didn’t see double-digit carries this season was Week 12 when Pittsburgh got steamrolled by Cincinnati. That isn’t likely to happen this week, as the Steelers are just one-point underdogs at home, and his $25 salary is far too low.
Myles Gaskin vs. NYJ – $21
COVID is rampaging through Miami’s locker room, Gaskin included, but he’ll be in a great spot if he’s cleared to play by Sunday. He would figure to be the bell cow back against the Jets, who have given up far more fantasy points to running backs than any other team in the league. He put up 96 total yards and found the end zone when he faced them in Week 11.
Miles Sanders vs. WAS – $18
Sanders is coming off his best game of the season in Week 13 and just had a bye to heal up his hobbled ankle. The Eagles are 9.5 point favorites at home against the Football Team, which bodes well for Sanders on the ground. Washington is also another team that’s been hit hard by COVID, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
AJ Dillon @ BAL – $16
I already mentioned Aaron Rodgers and will be featuring Davante Adams in the receivers section, but AJ Dillon is a screaming value. He’s led the Green Bay backfield lately, seeing more snaps, carries, and targets than Aaron Jones over the past two games. Jones has scored more touchdowns, but Dillon has scored six touchdowns this season, so he’s no stranger to the endzone.
Rashaad Penny @ LAR – $15
Penny was the must-add running back off the waiver wire in redraft leagues this week, and he’s another obvious value on this DFS slate. Seattle was already bound to feature Penny more after his breakout performance last week, but now he’ll likely have one less body to compete with in the backfield with Alex Collins added to the COVID list late in the week.
David Johnson @ JAX – $11
The Houston backfield isn’t typically one to target, but I’m fine adding Johnson to my lineup this week for his near-minimum salary. With Rex Burkhead already ruled out, he’ll be splitting the workload with journeyman running back Royce Freeman. Johnson doesn’t come with the fantasy ceiling he once did, but he should be able to do enough to pay off an $11 salary.
Davante Adams @ BAL – $32
I already mentioned that the red-hot Aaron Rodgers is facing a banged-up Baltimore secondary, which is just another way to say how much I love rostering Adams this week. There’s not much else that needs to be said about him, other than I plan on stacking plenty of lineups with both Rodgers and Adams this week.
CeeDee Lamb @ NYG – $26
Lamb has been peppered with double-digit targets in consecutive weeks for the first time this season, but he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 10. That could easily change this week against the lowly Giants, especially if the Dallas offense operates through the air instead of on the ground with their beat-up running backs. His target volume makes him safe for cash games, but he also has the multi-touchdown upside you need in tournaments.
DeVante Parker vs. NYJ $17
After returning to action before Miami’s bye last week, Parker was already on my DFS radar for Week 15. Now that Jaylen Waddle was added to the COVID list late in the week, he’s one of my favorite plays of the week. Tua Tagovailoa has been completing passes at an 80% clip over the last three weeks, and Parker is in line to be his top target against the Jets.
Brandon Aiyuk vs. ATL – $17
Over the last four games, Aiyuk has become San Fransisco’s top wide receiver, as Deebo Samuel has transitioned into a swiss army knife roll in the offense. Aiyuk has averaged a healthy 7.5 targets/game over that span. That kind of target volume could turn into a big fantasy week against an Atlanta team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wideouts over the last six weeks.
Christian Kirk @ DET – $16
A.J. Green @ DET – $14
The nice thing about paying up for Kyler Murray this week is that you can still create an affordable stack with him. Now that DeAndre Hopkins is shut down for the rest of the fantasy season, both Kirk and Green have opportunities to step up. I prefer Kirk for his big-play upside, but Green could find the end zone as well. You could even triple-stack them all if you think Arizona runs up the score on Detroit.
Gabriel Davis vs. CAR – $12
After Emmanuel Sanders got banged up last week, Davis finished with season highs in snaps (83%), targets (8), and routes run (43). Even better, he’s seen six red-zone targets over the last two weeks, only two fewer than Sanders has seen all season. With Sanders already ruled out, Davis could smash for just a $12 salary this week.
Freddie Swain @ LAR – $10
Swain only has 20 catches all season, but three of them have been touchdowns. Still, he’s impossible to trust under normal circumstances. However, with Tyler Lockett added to the COVID list late in the week, Swain would be the next receiver up to catch passes from Russell Wilson against the Rams.
Mark Andrews vs. GB – $23
Before Travis Kelce exploded against the Chargers on Thursday night, there was talk of Andrews overtaking him as the best tight end in all of fantasy football. While that may have been a bit premature, Andrews has impressed with 9.7 targets, 68.3 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game since Baltimore’s bye. The $10 gap between him and George Kittle is wider than it should be, and I have no problem taking advantage of it.
Mike Gesicki vs. NYJ – $19
Just like DeVante Parker, Gesicki should see some extra targets head his way in the absence of Jaylen Waddle. He could do plenty of damage against the lowly Jets defense, with the potential to finish as the top-scoring tight end on the slate.
Brevin Jordan @ JAX – $10
Jordan didn’t step on the field until Week 8 of this, his rookie season. Since then, he’s scored a touchdown in half of the games he’s played. He set new season-highs in targets (7) and routes run (18) last week to go along with his touchdown last week. He makes an ideal dart throw tight end against the Jaguars this week.
Don’t forget to deep dive the entire slate with this week’s Bottom of the Barrel!
Philadelphia Eagles vs. WAS – $15
The Eagles defense has been reliable lately, but the matchup with Washington is the main reason I’m interested in Philly. The Football team has only averaged 18 points scored over their last three games and the game line this week gives them just 16.5 implied points, the second-lowest on the slate. By the time you’re reading this that might be even lower, given that Taylor Heinicke was just added to the COVID list.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. HOU – $12
The Jaguars have become 3.5 point favorites in this game since Urban Meyer was unceremoniously relieved of his coaching duties. They have playmakers on the defensive side of the ball and should be able to get pressure on rookie Davis Mills. I feel great about rostering Jacksonville’s defense for just $12 on this slate.
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