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🏈 Yahoo NFL Week 16 DFS Picks

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Yahoo NFL DFS Picks

Welcome to the weekly Yahoo DFS picks article. The whole point of this article is to find the best plays to fit in your $200 team budget on the Yahoo main slate each week. Sometimes that means paying up, sometimes it means finding value, and sometimes it means taking some dart throws. Let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert @ HOU – $37

He’s tied with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes for the highest quarterback salary on the slate, but Herbert is the safest of the three. He’s averaging 22.8 fantasy points/game on the season, and that’s increased to 25.4 over his last five games. That type of production should be expected again as he leads the Chargers into Houston as nine-point favorites with an implied team total of 28 points, the highest on the slate.

Lamar Jackson @ CIN – $34
Tyler Huntley @ CIN – $31

At the time of this writing, it’s unclear if Jackson will make it back to face the Bengals this week. After Huntley’s strong showing last week, it’s hard to imagine the Ravens would let their franchise quarterback suit up if he’s anything less than 100%. If Jackson plays, he has the tournament-winning upside we’ve seen a handful of times this year. If he’s forced to sit, just saw Huntley hit the same ceiling last week.

Justin Fields @ SEA – $23

If you disregard the Week 11 game where he left early with a rib injury, Fields has finished as a top-ten fantasy quarterback in his last four full games. Over that span, he’s averaging 244 passing yards, 64 rushing yards, and 1.5 touchdowns. His $23 salary, the 20th highest on the slate, is way too low for a quarterback putting up those numbers.  

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Running Backs

Austin Ekeler @ HOU – $33
Justin Jackson @ HOU – $12

If you’re not paying up for Herbert, it makes sense to pay up for Ekeler. There may be some trepidation rostering him with him added to the COVID list but, as long as he’s cleared, he’s the safest running back on the slate. He finished with 16.2 fantasy points last week, despite playing just 34% of the snaps against Kansas City. That should be considered his floor this week against a Texans team that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. If Ekeler isn’t cleared to play Sunday, Jackson becomes a great salary-saving option.

James Robinson @ NYJ – $26

With Urban Meyer out the door, Robinson was back to playing over 80% of the offensive snaps last week against Houston. He turned the workload into the fourth-most fantasy points at the position last week, and he gets an even better matchup this week. The Jets have given up by far the most fantasy points to running backs this season, including when they got steamrolled by Duke Johnson for 25.2 fantasy points last week. 

Najee Harris @ KC – $24

Harris is currently the sixth-highest scoring fantasy back this season, but he’s listed with the ninth-highest running back salary on the slate. He’s coming off the worst game of his rookie season, but he’s played 97% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps over the last three games and is seeing a 15% target share on the season. That kind of volume is tough to come by and should produce a usable DFS output against a Kansas City team that’s allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs over the last three weeks.

Miles Sanders vs. NYG –  $20

Sanders has rushed for over 120 yards in consecutive games, and now he gets to take on the Giants at home. The Eagles are ten-point favorites, and the Giants are a bottom-ten defense against fantasy running backs. Given the matchup, there’s a good chance he tops 100 rushing yards for the third game in a row.

Ronald Jones @ CAR – $18

With Leonard Fournette out, Jones becomes the chalkiest play on the slate at just $18. The Buccaneers will likely be without their two best pass-catchers, but they still have their elite offensive line. He won’t set you apart in tournaments, but he’s a free square in cash games.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. PIT – $17

For the first time since Week 1, Edwards-Helaire played over 70% of the offensive snaps for Kansas City last week. His $17 salary is way too low for the lead back on a home team favored by eight points. The matchup is ideal, as the Steelers have given up the most fantasy points to running backs over the last six weeks.

Devin Singletary @ NE – $16

It appears Singletary has secured the lead role in Buffalo’s backfield. He’s played on 87% of snaps over the last two weeks and just logged a career-high 22 carries last week. It’s not an ideal matchup with New England, but it isn’t the worst either, as New England is giving up the 14th most fantasy points to running backs on the season. Singletary could be a steal at just $16 this week.

Don’t forget to deep dive the entire slate with this week’s Bottom of the Barrel!

Wide Receiver 

Copper Kupp @ MIN – $41

Kupp has the highest salary on the slate, and not just among receivers, but across all positions. He’s also the top-scoring fantasy wideout and has a dream matchup with a Vikings team that’s allowed the most fantasy points to receivers this season. Even at the inflated price, Kupp warrants consideration in all formats.

Keenan Allen @ HOU – $27
Mike Williams @ HOU – $21

I already detailed how much I like Herbert this week, and he’ll also be my favorite player to stack around. Allen’s reliability (10.9 targets, 7.6 catches, and 84 yards per game since the bye week) makes him a safer option at $27. Williams comes with more variance, but he also comes with a higher ceiling. He’s put up over 29 fantasy points twice this season, while Allen hasn’t topped 20 a single time. If you want to go all-in on the Charger passing game, there’s nothing wrong with super stacking all three of them.

Diontae Johnson @ KC – $23

Last week was Johnson’s lowest fantasy output of the season. Before that Week 15 dud, he had been as reliable as they come, averaging 10.8 targets and 15 fantasy points/game. He should bounce back this week as the Steelers try to keep pace with the Chiefs in Kansas City.

Marquise Brown @ CIN – $19

Baltimore primarily passes to just two players. One of them will be featured in the tight ends section, and Brown is the other. Hollywood has a 26.5% target share on the season and is due for some positive regression after failing to find the end zone since Week 7. He makes a great stacking partner with either Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley

DJ Moore vs. TB – $17

The quarterback situation in Carolina is dreadful, and the matchup with Tampa Bay is average, so this is a bet on Moore’s skill and salary this week. Despite the carousel of poor quarterback play on the Panthers, Moore is averaging 11.8 fantasy points/game over the last four weeks, the 14th most among wideouts over that span. His $17 salary, the 24th highest on the slate, is simply too low given his talent.  

Amon-Ra St. Brown @ ATL – $16

St. Brown has been red hot lately, racking up 50.6 fantasy points on 35 targets over his last three games. His 11.7 targets/game in that span is a huge uptick compared to the 4.7 he averaged through his first 12 games of the season. That usage bodes well in a matchup with Atlanta, who’s allowing the second-most fantasy points to wideouts over the past seven weeks.

Brandin Cooks vs. LAC – $16
Nico Collins vs. LAC – $10

If he gets cleared from the COVID list in time to play, Cooks is a fantastic value this week. Since Davis Mills has taken back over at quarterback, Cooks has racked up 21 targets, 15 catches, 203 yards, and two touchdowns in two games. If he can’t go, Collins makes a sneaky pivot. The rookie wideout has seen 14 targets over the last two games and should serve as the top receiving option for Mills and the Texans in the absence of Cooks.

Tyler Johnson @ CAR – $14
Scotty Miller @ CAR – $10

Chris Godwin is out for the season, and Mike Evans doesn’t look likely to play this week. The two stud receivers and Leonard Fournette had combined for 311 targets this season, and none of them are likely to be on the field for Tampa Bay this week. Antonio Brown may be the obvious play, but with that many vacated targets at this point of the season, there will be plenty of opportunities to go around. Johnson played 95% of snaps last week, ran 47 routes, and saw a career-high seven targets, so he seems like the next most likely candidate to step up. Miller makes for an interesting dart throw in large-field tournaments. Breshad Perriman, who could come off the COVID list, is noticeably absent from the player pool at the time of this writing.

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Tight End

Travis Kelce vs. PIT – $30

This is a week to pay up for your tight end, and Kelce may not be as popular as usual with the emergence of Mark Andrews and the opportunity for Gronk. As he reminded us last week, he’s one of the few at the position that can truly break a slate. I have no problem paying all the way up for him.

Mark Andrews @ CIN – $26

Andrews has been nothing short of dominant since Baltimore’s Week 8 bye. Over those seven weeks, he’s averaging 10.1 targets, 6.9 catches, and 78 receiving yards. He’s also scored five touchdowns over the seven-game stretch. Now he gets a matchup with the Bengals, who have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends over the last five weeks.

Rob Gronkowski @ CAR – $24

Gronk has averaged 9.2 targets/game since returning from injury in Week 11. Now he has an opportunity for even more volume with all the injured pass-catchers in Tampa Bay. He’ll likely be a popular play, but it’s hard to find an argument against him this week.  

Team Defense

Philadelphia Eagles vs. NYG – $15

The Eagles will face off against a Giants team that starts either Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm under center this week. That alone is enough of a reason to get them in your lineup. The fact that Philly is a ten-point favorite at home should only add to the confidence of rostering them this week.

Los Angeles Chargers @ HOU – $13

It’s always a good idea to target the defense taking on Houston. This week that means looking to the Chargers, who are ten-point favorites against the Texans. Their $13 salary is a steal given Houston’s team implied total of just 18 points, the third-lowest on the slate.

Los Angeles Rams @ MIN – $10

The Rams are favorites in the game, and now they likely won’t have to worry about stopping Dalvin Cook. They don’t have the strongest matchup on the slate, but Los Angeles should do just fine in your lineup given their bare minimum salary. 

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