Yahoo NFL Week 4 DFS Picks
Welcome to the weekly Yahoo DFS picks article. The whole point of this article is to find the best plays to fit in your $200 team budget on the Yahoo main slate each week. Sometimes that means paying up, sometimes it means finding value, and sometimes it means taking some dart throws. Let’s dive in.
Quarterback
Josh Allen vs. HOU – $34
I’ll be honest. I should’ve mentioned Allen last week. Unless his salary gets out of control, he needs to be considered every week. There are plenty of mobile quarterback options each week, but none of them come with the passing volume of Allen. He currently has the fifth-most rushing yards and fourth-most passing attempts among all quarterbacks. The Bills are expected to roll against Houston Sunday with nearly a 32 implied point total. Allen is likely to be responsible for the majority of those points.
Jalen Hurts vs. KC – $32
Hurts has been a top-ten fantasy quarterback each of the first three weeks, and he’s yet to hit his ceiling. He’s thrown or rushed for at least one touchdown in every game so far this season but hasn’t yet done both in the same game. The matchup with Kansas City this week has one of the highest expected point totals of the week, presenting a great opportunity for Hurts to find the endzone multiple times in multiple ways.
Justin Fields vs. DET $20
Of course, this will only work if Fields gets to start this week. His starting debut was admittedly awful, but Fields is still the same athletic freak. He still possesses the same massive fantasy ceiling with his ability to put up points on the ground. The main difference is that this week he and the Bears are home favorites instead of road underdogs. At the bare minimum quarterback salary, rostering Fields allows you to pay up with the rest of your roster.
Playing on DraftKings or FanDuel also? Make sure to check out the DK and FD studs article for Week 4!
Running Back
D’Andre Swift vs. CHI – $16
Sometimes Yahoo pricing makes no sense. This is one of those times. Swift has the third most fantasy points among running backs on the season but has just the 26th highest running back salary this week. He turned 14 carries and seven targets into the RB6 performance against Baltimore last week, and now he takes on a Chicago defense that was just thrashed by the Cleveland running backs. Slotting him into your lineup is a no-brainer this week.
Alvin Kamara vs. NYG – $33
Kamara is quietly reaching workhorse running back consideration. So far this season he’s seen 75% of his team’s carries, has an 80% snap rate, and a 23% target share. That level of opportunity is sure to turn into substantial fantasy points at home against the Giants this week.
Jonathan Taylor @ MIA – $28
Taylor’s slow start to the season continues, but that only makes me want to play him more. With Marlon Mack on his way out of town, Taylor will continue to see all the carries near the end zone. Eventually, he’ll start converting those opportunities into touchdowns, and they can come in bunches.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill @ PHI – $30
Making a case for Hill doesn’t require deep analysis. Don’t let his two consecutive disappointing games worry you. It just means another slate-breaking performance is on the horizon. He has a strong 25% target share, and the Chiefs have a 30 point implied total. The $30 salary may be pricey for most receivers, but I’d argue that it’s a discount for Hill.
Calvin Ridley vs. ATL – $24
Ridley hasn’t met his offseason expectations through three weeks, but it isn’t for lack of volume. He’s averaging nearly ten targets/game and holds a 25% target share. The problem is, so far, those targets haven’t turned into big plays; he’s averaging a meager 8.8 yards/reception. He’ll look to increase that average this week against Washington, a defense that’s given up the third-most passing yards and the most fantasy points to wide receivers so far this season.
D.J. Moore @ DAL – $20
Moore is off to a great start with new quarterback Sam Darnold, even though the Panthers haven’t had to air it out much this season. That could change with Christian McCaffrey sidelined for the potential shootout with the high-powered Dallas offense. Yet, for some reason, Moore has a cheaper salary than the struggling Robert Woods, presenting a great value.
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Tight End
George Kittle vs. SEA – $22
Kittle is near the top of the tight-end salary list, but he’s still $9 cheaper than Travis Kelce while possessing a similar ceiling. He’s scored the most fantasy points by tight ends without a touchdown yet this season, coming in at TE8. This week he gets to match up with a Seattle team that just gave up 70 yards and a touchdown to Tyler Conklin.
Mike Gesicki vs. IND – $13
Gesicki is trending in the right direction in all the categories you want to see for fantasy production. He‘s seen his targets increase each week and has the third-most air yards among tight ends, trailing just Kelce and Darren Waller. He’s also running out of the slot at a strong 74% rate. Those are the kind of numbers that often lead to breakout performances.
Tommy Tremble @ DAL – $10
Tremble is a deep play, but he isn’t just a shot in the dark. While he just had his first two NFL touches last week, they were both impressive. The Panthers schemed a rushing touchdown for him, and Darnold hit him on a beautiful 30-yard pass. Now Dan Arnold has been traded away, opening up more opportunities for the rookie tight end.
Team Defense
Green Bay vs. PIT – $10
This is another massive misprice by Yahoo. The Packers may not have the best NFL defense, but the Steelers certainly aren’t an intimidating offense. Ben Roethlisberger looks washed up through three games and now has to head on the road to Lambeau Field. At minimum salary, the Packers should easily return value.
New Orleans vs. NYG – $19
If you have the means to pay up for a defense, the Saints are the way to go. The Superdome is one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, and this will be the first game there with a full-capacity crowd since the 2019 season. Enter Daniel Jones and the Giants, and there’s a great chance New Orleans forces multiple turnovers in this matchup.
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