MLB DFS Preview Monday 6/17/24

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates – 6:40 PM EDT – PNC Park

Pitching Matchup

• Cincinnati Reds: Carson Spiers (RHP)
• Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes (RHP)

Game Insights

• Carson Spiers has shown a mixed bag of performances with a 4.18 ERA over the past two seasons. He struggles with control at times (8% BB rate) and isn’t a heavy strikeout pitcher (19% K rate). His xERA of 3.48 indicates he’s been slightly unlucky.
• Paul Skenes is the standout here with an impressive 2.43 ERA and a dominant 35% strikeout rate. His low 5% walk rate and 51% ground ball rate show his ability to keep the ball on the ground and avoid free passes.
• Key Points:
  • Reds offense has been inconsistent, posting a .330 wOBA vs. LHP and .308 wOBA vs. RHP.
  • Pirates have a slight edge with a .312 wOBA vs. RHP, indicating a balanced attack.

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 PM EDT – Citizens Bank Park

Pitching Matchup

• San Diego Padres: Randy Vasquez (RHP)
• Philadelphia Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP)

Game Insights

• Randy Vasquez has struggled mightily with a 5.93 xERA and a high .377 xwOBA, indicating he gives up a lot of hard contact.
• Cristopher Sanchez is more stable, sporting a 3.29 ERA and a 3.82 xERA. His 58% ground ball rate is excellent for limiting damage, and his 23% strikeout rate is respectable.
• Key Points:
  • Phillies’ offense is potent with a .342 wOBA vs. LHP, making them a tough matchup for Vasquez.
  • Padres have a decent .295 wOBA vs. LHP but will need to step up against Sanchez’s ground ball tendencies.

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins – 6:40 PM EDT – LoanDepot Park

Pitching Matchup

• St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray (RHP)
• Miami Marlins: Braxton Garrett (LHP)

Game Insights

• Sonny Gray has been stellar with a 2.85 ERA and a 3.12 xERA. His 27% strikeout rate and 47% ground ball rate make him a tough opponent.
• Braxton Garrett has been solid but not spectacular with a 4.06 ERA and a 4.26 xERA. His low walk rate (4%) is a positive, but he allows a high 40% hard contact rate.
• Key Points:
  • Cardinals’ offense has a .277 wOBA vs. LHP, which could struggle against Garrett.
  • Marlins’ offense is weaker with a .262 wOBA vs. RHP, giving Gray a favorable matchup.

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 PM EDT – Rogers Centre

Pitching Matchup

• Boston Red Sox: Nick Pivetta (RHP)
• Toronto Blue Jays: Yusei Kikuchi (LHP)

Game Insights

• Nick Pivetta is a high-strikeout pitcher (31% K rate) but can be erratic with an 8% walk rate and a 4.00 ERA.
• Yusei Kikuchi has a solid 3.67 ERA and a 3.41 xERA, with a good mix of strikeouts (25%) and ground balls (41%).
• Key Points:
  • Red Sox’s offense has a .324 wOBA vs. LHP, presenting a challenge for Kikuchi.
  • Blue Jays’ offense has a .291 wOBA vs. RHP, and Pivetta’s high strikeout rate could be problematic for them.

Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves – 7:20 PM EDT – Truist Park

Pitching Matchup

• Detroit Tigers: Reese Olson (RHP)
• Atlanta Braves: Max Fried (LHP)

Game Insights

• Reese Olson has a 3.86 ERA but a higher 4.03 xERA, indicating some luck. His 23% strikeout rate and 47% ground ball rate are decent.
• Max Fried is an elite pitcher with a 2.88 ERA and a 3.36 xERA. His 24% strikeout rate and 59% ground ball rate show his ability to dominate.
• Key Points:
  • Tigers’ offense is mediocre with a .304 wOBA vs. LHP.
  • Braves’ offense is strong with a .320 wOBA vs. RHP, and Fried’s dominance should keep the Tigers in check.

New York Mets at Texas Rangers – 8:05 PM EDT – Globe Life Field

Pitching Matchup

• New York Mets: David Peterson (LHP)
• Texas Rangers: Jon Gray (RHP)

Game Insights

• David Peterson has struggled with a 4.93 ERA and a 5.63 xERA. His 10% walk rate is a concern, though he has a decent 24% strikeout rate.
• Jon Gray has been more reliable with a 3.56 ERA and a 4.18 xERA. His 22% strikeout rate and 41% ground ball rate are solid.
• Key Points:
  • Mets’ offense has a .349 wOBA vs. RHP, making them a tough matchup for Gray.
  • Rangers’ offense is balanced with a .300 wOBA vs. LHP, and Peterson’s control issues could be exploited.

San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM EDT – Wrigley Field

Pitching Matchup

• San Francisco Giants: Jordan Hicks (RHP)
• Chicago Cubs: Javier Assad (RHP)

Game Insights

• Jordan Hicks has a 3.15 ERA and a 3.84 xERA. His 25% strikeout rate is good, but his 10% walk rate can be problematic.
• Javier Assad has a 2.95 ERA but a higher 4.06 xERA, indicating he might be due for some regression. His 22% strikeout rate is decent.
• Key Points:
  • Giants’ offense has a .344 wOBA vs. RHP, making them a tough opponent for Assad.
  • Cubs’ offense has a .305 wOBA vs. RHP, and Hicks’ high strikeout rate could pose challenges.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies – 8:40 PM EDT – Coors Field

Pitching Matchup

• Los Angeles Dodgers: James Paxton (LHP)
• Colorado Rockies: Cal Quantrill (RHP)

Game Insights

• James Paxton has a 4.28 ERA and a 5.04 xERA. His 21% strikeout rate is solid, but his high 10% walk rate is a concern.
• Cal Quantrill has a 4.38 ERA and a 4.09 xERA. His 15% strikeout rate is low, and he gives up a lot of hard contact (32%).
• Key Points:
  • Dodgers’ offense is elite with a .351 wOBA vs. RHP, and they should fare well against Quantrill.
  • Rockies’ offense has a .337 wOBA vs. LHP, making them a tough challenge for Paxton at Coors Field.

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels – 9:38 PM EDT – Angel Stadium

Pitching Matchup

• Milwaukee Brewers: Carlos Rodriguez (RHP)
• Los Angeles Angels: Jose Soriano (RHP)

Game Insights

• Carlos Rodriguez has a 4.91 ERA and a 6.48 xERA, indicating he’s been very lucky. His 5% walk rate is good, but his 21% strikeout rate is average.
• Jose Soriano has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.84 xERA. His 24% strikeout rate and 57% ground ball rate show he can limit damage effectively.
• Key Points:
  • Brewers’ offense has a .306 wOBA vs. RHP, which might struggle against Soriano.
  • Angels’ offense has a .366 wOBA vs. RHP, making them a tough matchup for Rodriguez.

That’s your detailed MLB DFS Preview for today’s slate! Stay tuned for the Top Hitters and Top Stacks article coming later today. Happy DFS playing!