MLB DFS Preview Thursday 5/9/24 Early Slate

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds

Time: 1:10 PM EDT
Ballpark: Great American Ball Park

Pitching Matchup:

• Slade Cecconi (ARI) – RHP
• Hunter Greene (CIN) – RHP

Insights:

• Vegas Lines: The Reds are slight favorites with a -120 line and the game has a total of 9 runs, indicating expectations of a high-scoring affair.
• Pitcher Comparison:
  • Slade Cecconi: Showcases a 4.05 SIERA and a solid xWOBA of .247. His ERA of 4.57 is a bit high, reflecting some struggles, but his low BB% at 4% shows good control.
  • Hunter Greene: Known for his strikeout capabilities (30% K-rate), Greene pairs this with a favorable xWOBA of .251. His SIERA at 3.7 is impressive, though he tends to allow more walks (10% BB%).

Game Context:

• This matchup is expected to be hitter-friendly, given the ballpark and the total runs line. Both pitchers have strengths but have also shown vulnerabilities that could be exploited by opposing lineups.

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins

Time: 1:10 PM EDT
Ballpark: Target Field

Pitching Matchup:

• Logan Gilbert (SEA) – RHP
• Pablo Lopez (MIN) – RHP

Insights:

• Vegas Lines: The Twins are favored with a -124 line in a game with a low total of 6.5 runs, suggesting a pitcher’s duel.
• Pitcher Comparison:
  • Logan Gilbert: With an ERA of 3.32 and a SIERA to match at 3.68, Gilbert’s performance is solid, supported by a 25% K-rate and low BB%.
  • Pablo Lopez: Exhibits excellent control and efficiency, as seen with his 3.28 SIERA and 2.74 xERA, making him a formidable opponent on the mound.

Game Context:

• A tight contest expected with strong pitching on both sides. DFS players should consider the lower potential for runs, which might pivot the focus towards selecting high-impact hitters or investing in one of these pitchers.

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies

Time: 3:10 PM EDT
Ballpark: Coors Field

Pitching Matchup:

• Keaton Winn (SFG) – RHP
• Cal Quantrill (COL) – RHP

Insights:

• Vegas Lines: Giants are favorites at -162, with a game total of 9.5 runs. Coors Field’s reputation for high scores holds true here.
• Pitcher Comparison:
  • Keaton Winn: Despite a higher ERA and xWOBA, Winn’s groundball rate (59%) could play well at Coors Field.
  • Cal Quantrill: Struggles more distinctly with a 5.3 SIERA and a higher ERA of 4.97. His lower K-rate and higher HC% could be problematic in this hitter-friendly environment.

Game Context:

• The game environment at Coors Field often leads to high-scoring games. Both pitchers will have their work cut out for them, making them less attractive for DFS but increasing the appeal of hitters in this game.

General DFS Strategy:

• Today’s slate suggests a mix of strategies with the potential for a pitcher’s duel in Minnesota and more offensive games in Cincinnati and Colorado.
• Selecting pitchers like Pablo Lopez, who has shown strong control and efficiency, could provide value, while hitters from the Giants and Diamondbacks might capitalize on weaker pitching and favorable park factors.

Stay tuned for our deeper dive into top hitters and stacks later today, which will complement this pitching analysis and help you finalize your DFS lineups.