MLB DFS Preview Tuesday 4/30/24

Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre

• Pitching Matchup: Cole Ragans (LHP, KCR) vs. Jose Berrios (RHP, TOR)
• Key Insights:
  • Cole Ragans: Showcasing a xWOBA of .307 and a solid SIERA at 3.7. His ground ball rate stands at 44%, helping minimize damage from home runs.
  • Jose Berrios: Despite a higher xWOBA at .336, Berrios maintains a lower ERA (3.26). He’s less dominant with strikeouts (23% K-rate) compared to Ragans but has a better control with a lower walk rate (7%).

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets – 7:10 PM EDT at Citi Field

• Pitching Matchup: Javier Assad (RHP, CHC) vs. Sean Manaea (LHP, NYM)
• Key Insights:
  • Javier Assad: Remarkably efficient with a xERA of 2.87 and a SIERA of 4.32. His control and ground ball tendencies (45% GB%) provide a stable floor.
  • Sean Manaea: Struggles visible with a high xWOBA of .355 and xERA of 5.06, making him potentially vulnerable against a Cubs lineup that handles lefties well.

San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox – 7:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park

• Pitching Matchup: Logan Webb (RHP, SFG) vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP, BOS)
• Key Insights:
  • Logan Webb: Strong ground ball pitcher (62% GB%) with a respectable xWOBA of .329. His ability to induce grounders could play well in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
  • Cooper Criswell: Less effective with a xWOBA of .306 and an ERA of 4.87. His lower strikeout rate (17%) could be an issue against the Giants’ patient hitters.

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox – 7:40 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field

• Pitching Matchup: Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP, MIN) vs. Mike Soroka (RHP, CHW)
• Key Insights:
  • Simeon Woods Richardson: Solid metrics with a xWOBA of .313 and a SIERA of 3.94. His ability to manage contact should help him against a struggling White Sox offense.
  • Mike Soroka: Troubling stats with a high xWOBA of .411 and xERA of 7.22. His return from injury has been rocky, presenting a target for DFS players looking to stack against him.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers – 7:40 PM EDT at American Family Field

• Pitching Matchup: Tyler Alexander (LHP, TBR) vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP, MIL)
• Key Insights:
  • Tyler Alexander: A control artist with a low walk rate (4%) and decent xWOBA (.311). His pitching style might help limit the Brewers’ power hitters.
  • Freddy Peralta: Strong strikeout ability (31% K-rate) and a solid xWOBA of .315. His aggressive approach could pay dividends against a Rays lineup that can be prone to strikeouts.

Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers – 8:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field

• Pitching Matchup: MacKenzie Gore (LHP, WAS) vs. Jon Gray (RHP, TEX)
• Key Insights:
  • MacKenzie Gore: Promising with a xWOBA of .317 and a xERA of 3.92. Gore’s higher strikeout potential (26%) makes him a sneaky play in DFS.
  • Jon Gray: Struggling with control and consistency, evidenced by a xWOBA of .362 and a high ERA of 3.96. The Nationals might find some success against him.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros – 8:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park

• Pitching Matchup: Carlos Carrasco (RHP, CLE) vs. Hunter Brown (RHP, HOU)
• Key Insights:
  • Carlos Carrasco: Facing challenges this season with a high xWOBA of .334 and ERA of 6.35. Houston’s powerful lineup could pose significant problems for him.
  • Hunter Brown: Despite a troubling xWOBA of .385, his ground ball rate (52%) and decent K-rate (26%) provide some upside in a matchup against the contact-heavy Guardians lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels – 9:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium

• Pitching Matchup: Spencer Turnbull (RHP, PHI) vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP, LAA)
• Key Insights:
  • Spencer Turnbull: Boasts a competitive xERA of 3.16 and a ground ball rate of 48%. His ability to keep the ball in the park could be key against the Angels.
  • Tyler Anderson: Has been struggling this season, reflected in a xWOBA of .338 and xERA of 4.52. Phillies’ hitters might find this matchup favorable, particularly given Anderson’s high fly ball rate.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 9:40 PM EDT at Chase Field

• Pitching Matchup: Landon Knack (RHP, LAD) vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP, ARI)
• Key Insights:
  • Landon Knack: Shows a moderate xWOBA of .328 with a xERA of 4.23. His mid-range strikeout and walk rates suggest he could struggle against a high-contact Diamondbacks lineup.
  • Jordan Montgomery: Solid performance metrics with a xWOBA of .286 and xERA of 3.14. His ability to control the strike zone could make it tough for the Dodgers’ batters.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Oakland Athletics – 9:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum

• Pitching Matchup: Mitch Keller (RHP, PIT) vs. Alex Wood (LHP, OAK)
• Key Insights:
  • Mitch Keller: With a xWOBA of .350 and a xERA of 4.9, Keller presents risk but also potential given his 25% strikeout rate. Oakland’s weaker lineup might allow him some leeway.
  • Alex Wood: High xWOBA of .382 and xERA of 6.02 indicate significant struggles. Pirates’ right-handed hitters could exploit Wood’s vulnerabilities.

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres – 9:40 PM EDT at Petco Park

• Pitching Matchup: Nick Martinez (RHP, CIN) vs. Jhony Brito (RHP, SDP)
• Key Insights:
  • Nick Martinez: Solid with a xWOBA of .316 and xERA of 3.89. His good ground ball rate (49%) should help him manage the Padres’ lineup.
  • Jhony Brito: Challenges are evident with a xWOBA of .360 and xERA of 5.23. Reds’ hitters might find opportunities to score against Brito.

Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners – 9:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park

• Pitching Matchup: Reynaldo Lopez (RHP, ATL) vs. Luis Castillo (RHP, SEA)
• Key Insights:
  • Reynaldo Lopez: Exceptional metrics with a xWOBA of .261 and xERA of 2.6, showcasing potential for high DFS value tonight. His strikeout prowess (29%) could be particularly effective.
  • Luis Castillo: Also strong with a xWOBA of .293 and xERA of 3.31. This game could be a pitcher’s duel, making hitters from both sides less appealing in DFS lineups.

Each of these games presents unique dynamics and pitcher matchups that could significantly influence DFS decisions. When considering pitchers, balance their recent performance with their historical ability to manage contact and control games.

Moreover, consider the opposing offenses’ strengths and weaknesses to make informed choices about stacking or targeting individual matchups.