MLB DFS Top Hitters 3/31/24

1. Yordan Alvarez (Astros) vs. Clarke Schmidt (Yankees)

• Why He’s a Top Play:
  • Alvarez’s power is unmatched, boasting a .328 ISO and an eye-popping .462 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.
  • Facing Clarke Schmidt, who has shown vulnerabilities against lefties (.352 xwOBA), Alvarez’s matchup is particularly favorable.
  • The game’s environment at Minute Maid Park further enhances Alvarez’s home run potential.

Key Insights:

• Schmidt’s higher ISO allowed to lefties sets up perfectly for Alvarez’s skill set.
• Given his disciplined approach (15.1% BB% against righties), Alvarez is likely to capitalize on any mistakes.

2. Aaron Judge (Yankees) vs. J.P. France (Astros)

• Why He’s a Top Play:
  • Judge’s incredible .330 ISO and .452 xwOBA against right-handed pitchers underline his threat in any matchup.
  • J.P. France has shown a tendency to struggle against righties, with a .370 xwOBA allowed, making this a prime spot for Judge.
  • Judge’s power, combined with his knack for getting on base (19.7% BB%), gives him multiple ways to rack up DFS points.

Key Insights:

• France’s issues with right-handed hitters play into Judge’s strengths.
• Judge’s consistent power makes him a threat for home runs, extra-base hits, and RBIs.

3. Mike Trout (Angels) vs. Tyler Wells (Orioles)

• Why He’s a Top Play:
  • Trout has a strong .271 ISO and .401 xwOBA when facing right-handed pitching, indicating his power and on-base capabilities.
  • Wells, while strong against lefties, shows a higher xwOBA (.326) to righties, which Trout could exploit.
  • Oriole Park at Camden Yards offers a hitter-friendly environment, potentially enhancing Trout’s home run chances.

Key Insights:

• The matchup against Wells provides Trout with an excellent opportunity to leverage his power.
• Trout’s ability to draw walks and his speed on the bases add additional DFS point potential through stolen bases and runs scored.

4. Bryce Harper (Phillies) vs. Chris Sale (Braves)

• Why He’s a Top Play:
  • Harper’s impressive .220 ISO and .367 xwOBA against left-handed pitching showcase his balanced power and ability to get on base.
  • Sale’s dominance is undeniable, but Harper’s prowess against lefties could see him finding success even in this tough matchup.
  • Citizens Bank Park’s favorable dimensions for hitters enhance Harper’s potential for extra-base hits.

Key Insights:

• Despite Sale’s effectiveness, Harper’s skill set allows him to perform against top-tier pitching.
• Harper’s discipline at the plate (11.6% BB% against lefties) means he’s likely to find opportunities to score and drive in runs.

5. Christian Yelich (Brewers) vs. Tylor Megill (Mets)

• Why He’s a Top Play:
  • Yelich presents a .195 ISO and .387 xwOBA against right-handers, indicating his blend of power and on-base skills.
  • Facing Megill, who has a higher xwOBA (.381) allowed to right-hand hitters, Yelich can exploit this matchup due to his experience and batting eye.
  • The matchup at Citi Field, while typically pitcher-friendly, doesn’t hinder Yelich’s ability to produce through his on-base percentage and slugging.

Key Insights:

• Yelich’s advanced plate discipline and speed on the basepaths give him multiple avenues for DFS scoring.
• Despite the righty-on-lefty matchup, Yelich’s consistency and Megill’s splits suggest a favorable outcome for the Brewers’ outfielder.

Potenial Sleepers

1. Nick Martini (Reds) vs. Jake Irvin (Nationals)

• Why He’s a Sleeper:
  • Martini’s staggering .431 ISO and .381 xwOBA against right-handed pitching suggest untapped potential, especially given his lower DFS pricing.
  • Facing Jake Irvin, who shows vulnerability (.355 xwOBA against lefties), Martini could capitalize on this matchup.
  • Great American Ball Park enhances home run potential, adding to Martini’s upside.

Key Insights:

• Despite limited at-bats, Martini’s power metrics are eye-catching and could translate to high DFS value in a favorable matchup.
• His position in the Reds’ lineup could afford him RBI opportunities, further increasing his DFS appeal.

2. Josh Bell (Marlins) vs. Bailey Falter (Pirates)

• Why He’s a Sleeper:
  • Bell’s .228 ISO and .383 xwOBA against left-handed pitching highlight his power and on-base ability in this split.
  • Falter’s significant struggles against righties (.376 xwOBA allowed) set up well for Bell’s skill set.
  • Bell’s switch-hitting ability ensures he maintains favorable matchups throughout the game.

Key Insights:

• As a switch-hitter, Bell’s versatility and power make him a threat in DFS, especially at potentially lower ownership levels.
• His middle-of-the-order placement should provide ample RBI and scoring opportunities.

3. Kyle Isbel (Royals) vs. Bailey Ober (Twins)

• Why He’s a Sleeper:
  • Isbel shows potential with a .145 ISO and solid contact skills, making him a low-cost option in DFS lineups.
  • Ober’s better performance against righties may deter some, but Isbel’s ability to make contact could lead to production via RBIs, runs, or even steals.
  • Kauffman Stadium’s dimensions favor hitters who can find gaps, aligning with Isbel’s hitting profile.

Key Insights:

• As a part of a young and dynamic Royals lineup, Isbel could benefit from hitting in situations with runners on base.
• His speed on the bases offers additional DFS point avenues through stolen bases and runs scored.

4. Adam Duvall (Braves) vs. Ranger Suarez (Phillies)

• Why He’s a Sleeper:
  • Duvall’s power is evident with a .241 ISO against lefties, making him a potential low-ownership power source in today’s slate.
  • Suarez, while solid, has shown susceptibility to power bats, which aligns with Duvall’s home run hitting capabilities.
  • Playing at Citizens Bank Park, known for favoring right-handed power, enhances Duvall’s sleeper appeal.

Key Insights:

• Duvall’s streaky power makes him a boom-or-bust option, ideal for GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments.
• His placement in the Braves’ lineup could yield high-leverage at-bats, offering the potential for significant DFS points.

Today’s MLB DFS slate offers a rich array of hitting talents, but these five stand out due to their matchups, statistical backing, and potential game environments. Incorporating these top hitters into your DFS lineups could provide a solid foundation for success.

Remember, the volatile nature of baseball means any day can bring surprises, so stay tuned for lineup changes and weather updates as game time approaches. Good luck!