MLB DFS Top Pitchers 4/27/24 Main Slate

Tyler Glasnow (R) – Dodgers

• Today’s Edge: Glasnow is a strikeout machine, boasting a K% north of 30% against both lefties and righties, which is exactly what you want in DFS.
• K-Factor: With 6.8 Ks on average and a recent track record of shutting down hitters with a .206 wOBA against righties, he’s a no-brainer for high-ceiling DFS points.
• The Stat Line: Last 6 games – 44 Ks, 23.7 DK points on average, facing a Blue Jays lineup that he can overpower with his arsenal.

Sonny Gray (R) – Cardinals

• Consistency Counts: Gray brings consistency and control to the mound, which translates to reliable DFS points.
• Stat Stuffer: His 19 Ks across the last 6 games and a solid sub-.220 wOBA against right-handers signal a likely strong outing against the Mets.
• Versatility: He’s got a diverse pitch mix that can keep batters guessing and groundballs coming.

Under the Radar:

JP Sears (L) – Athletics

• Sneaky Play: Sears might not be the flashiest name, but his recent performances suggest an upside, especially with a K% of 31.0% against lefties in his last 6 games.
• Cost-Effective: As a DFS pick, he’s likely cheaper, allowing you to allocate funds to beef up your hitters.

Michael Lorenzen (R) – Rangers

• Groundball Guy: Lorenzen could be an asset with his 53.8% GB rate against lefties. Keep in mind, groundballs don’t get over the fence.
• K Potential: He’s got a respectable K% and in DFS, it’s all about those strikeouts.

Key Insights on Matchups

• Glassnow’s Fastball: He’s firing on all cylinders with a FF% over 45 and FF Vel pushing past 96 mph. That’s heat that can overwhelm the best hitters and rack up DFS points.
• Gray’s Curveball: It’s not just about velocity. Gray’s breaking ball can bamboozle hitters, evidenced by a solid CU Spin, adding to his DFS value through potential Ks and weak contact.

DFS Strategy Points

• Look at Recent Trends: A pitcher’s last 6 games can give a good indication of their current form. Higher average DK points in recent outings are gold.
• Strikeout Ratios: The K% is critical. A pitcher with a K% over 25 against their opponent’s dominant batting side could be in for a big game.
• Weather and Wind: Don’t overlook game conditions. For example, strong winds blowing in can turn a would-be homer into a warning-track catch.

In summary, DFS success on the mound tonight looks like a combination of Glassnow’s strikeouts, Gray’s consistency, and the under-the-radar plays of Sears and Lorenzen, who could provide great value. Lock in on those Ks, watch the matchups, and let’s play ball!