MLB DFS Top Plays 5/8/24 Early Slate

Shohei Ohtani (L) – 1B/OF, Dodgers

• Price: $6600
• Matchup: Vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP, Marlins)
• Stats & Insights:
  • Power Potential: Ohtani has an impressive .444 expected home run rate and a .406 xWOBA against left-handed pitching.
  • Matchup Advantage: Weathers struggles with control (10.4% BB rate) and has a high .222 ISO against righties, making Ohtani a prime candidate for high fantasy output today.

Bryce Harper (L) – 1B, Phillies

• Price: $5800
• Matchup: Vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP, Blue Jays)
• Stats & Insights:
  • Strong Performance: Harper’s .504 expected home run rate and .411 xWOBA are indicators of his elite hitting capabilities.
  • Favorable Conditions: Bassitt has been vulnerable to left-handers, showing a .245 ISO against them, which aligns well for Harper to exploit.

Mookie Betts (R) – 2B/SS, Dodgers

• Price: $6400
• Matchup: Vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP, Marlins)
• Stats & Insights:
  • High Consistency: Betts boasts a high .322 ISO and a .430 xWOBA against left-handers this season.
  • Weather’s Weakness: Given Weathers’ high ISO allowed (.222) and struggles against righties, Betts is set for a potentially big day.

Kyle Schwarber (L) – OF, Phillies

• Price: $5600
• Matchup: Vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP, Blue Jays)
• Stats & Insights:
  • Home Run Threat: With a .282 ISO and a robust .370 xWOBA, Schwarber’s power is well-suited to take advantage of Bassitt’s difficulties with lefties.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) – OF, Padres

• Price: $5100
• Matchup: Vs. Hayden Wesneski (RHP, Cubs)
• Stats & Insights:
  • Matchup Perk: Tatis’ .187 ISO and .358 xWOBA against right-handers pair well against Wesneski, who has allowed a .304 xWOBA to righties.
  • Game Environment: Playing at Wrigley Field, known for its hitter-friendly dynamics, adds extra value to Tatis’ potential today.

Under the Radar Plays

These players may not be on every fantasy player’s radar but have the potential for a breakout based on their matchups and recent trends.

Jack Suwinski (L) – OF, Pirates

• Price: $3800
• Why a Top Play?
  • Facing Jose Soriano, who has an inflated .343 xWOBA against right-handers, Suwinski’s power (.232 ISO) could capitalize on Soriano’s weaknesses.

J.D. Martinez (R) – OF, Mets

• Price: $4000
• Why a Top Play?
  • Martinez shows strong numbers (.276 ISO, .364 xWOBA) against right-handers and faces Sonny Gray, who, despite being tough, could give up some production to power hitters like Martinez.

Willie Calhoun (L) – OF, Angels

• Price: $2700
• Why a Top Play?
  • An extreme value play, Calhoun’s matchup against Martin Perez, who allows a .352 xWOBA to right-handers, provides a low-cost opportunity for significant returns.

My hope is, these insights provide a foundation for building a strong DFS lineup for today’s MLB games, focusing on exploiting pitcher vulnerabilities and taking advantage of favorable hitter matchups and conditions.