MLB DFS Top Stacks 4/30/24

1. Blue Jays vs. Cole Ragans (Royals)

• Matchup Insight:
  • Cole Ragans has a xwOBA of .332 against left-handed hitters, suggesting vulnerability. Despite stronger numbers against righties (.277 xwOBA), the Blue Jays’ lineup features power hitters who excel against lefties.
  • The over/under line is set at 8, indicating expected runs, favoring offensive productivity.
• Why Stack Blue Jays:
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. boasts a high contact rate and exceptional on-base skills (.373 xwOBA).
  • Bo Bichette and George Springer add depth and power (.393 and .319 xwOBA respectively), making them prime candidates for run production and RBIs.
  • Justin Turner shows standout slugging potential with a .270 ISO against lefties.

2. Mets vs. Javier Assad (Cubs)

• Matchup Insight:
  • Javier Assad, pitching for the Cubs, shows weaknesses with a .342 xwOBA against lefties and a relatively high .299 xwOBA against righties, coupled with moderate strikeout rates.
  • The game’s environment at Citi Field, with moderate weather conditions, is conducive for hitting.
• Why Stack Mets:
  • Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez are key stack components, boasting high ISO numbers (.269 and .291, respectively) and solid xwOBA figures.
  • Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor provide on-base potential and speed, enhancing scoring opportunities through extra-base hits and runs scored.

3. Twins vs. Mike Soroka (White Sox)

• Matchup Insight:
  • Soroka has struggled this season with a high .381 xwOBA against right-handers and a substantial .265 ISO, suggesting susceptibility to power hitters.
  • Target Field’s conditions today are neutral, neither significantly favoring pitchers nor batters, which highlights the Twins’ inherent lineup strength.
• Why Stack Twins:
  • Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton can capitalize on Soroka’s difficulties with right-handed power, holding .331 and .311 xwOBA respectively.
  • Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff offer value with their ability to connect and drive in runs, particularly against right-handed pitching.

Under-the-Radar Stack:

Giants vs. Cooper Criswell (Red Sox)

• Matchup Insight:
  • Criswell has been particularly vulnerable to left-handed hitters, showing a .407 xwOBA and a .182 ISO. His performance suggests a high potential for the Giants’ left-handed batters to exploit.
  • Fenway Park can be hitter-friendly, especially against pitchers who struggle with control and power suppression.
• Why Stack Giants:
  • LaMonte Wade Jr. and Mike Yastrzemski offer strong on-base and slugging capabilities (.376 and .332 xwOBA, respectively), ideal for stacking in DFS.
  • Thairo Estrada and Joc Pederson complement the stack with solid hitting against right-handers, enhancing the potential for high-run innings.

Each stack is chosen based on statistical matchups and pitcher vulnerabilities, focusing on creating high potential for scoring through strategic player combinations. Today’s DFS landscape offers clear opportunities to capitalize on these matchups, with the Blue Jays, Mets, and Twins presenting particularly strong options, and the Giants serving as a sneaky play with considerable upside.