MLB Lineup Study Breakdown 5/25/2022
Welcome everyone to the Members only MLB lineup study breakdown article. For this article, I am taking the free to all lineup study article and I am breaking it down so that our members get a nice easy, quick snapshot of what the trends are in the MLB DFS season so far. This article will come out on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, but I hope to provide some extra material for our members who are looking towards the trends to help them make lineups.
I wasn’t going to write anything in this spot today, but this morning I had to have a talk with my 3rd grade daughter about what to do if her school goes into lockdown. It broke my heart to have that talk with her this morning especially. Never take life for granted. Understand some things are bigger than DFS. Hug your loved ones. Being from Buffalo, I have been saying these things a lot lately and it has crushed me to see it happen again.
Let’s get to the stats. Draftkings first, then scroll down for Fanduel.
What sticks out to me! – Midsized slates
Since today the main slate is 5 games on Draftkings I wanted to focus there, everything you see here will strictly be for midsized slates.
Hub Stack Ratings – 77% of the main stacks in the winning lineups have had a Stack Rating in the Study Hub of 55 or above. Compare that to large slates and it is a lower number on smaller slates. I would probably look at some of the lower rated hitters to see if there are any diamonds in the rough I can find on smaller slates.
Stack size – What I am seeing here is that on these midsized slates, 63% of the time a 5 man stack of some sort has been in the winning lineups.
Vegas Implied Run Totals for Stacks – 71% of the time in midsized slates the winning stack has had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 or above.
Stacks thought – On midsized slates these trends have a little lower percentage than on larger slates, expect a little more leeway in your stack settings to accommodate for this. Look more into the matchup itself and see where a lower rated or lower Vegas Implied team might be in a good spot to have a nice night.
Players under 10% owned – This is where you can gain an advantage in a smaller slate. 92% of the time at least 3 players have been under 10% owned in the winning lineups. Most people will play chalkier lineups on smaller slates, but get different, maybe set a group with players projected under 10% owned and say use at least 3. Hint: don’t forget to have pitchers in that group.
Pitchers TROF Rating – 94% of the time the winning pitchers have had a rating from the Study Hub of 50 or above. 76% of the time, the rating for pitchers is above 60. These numbers are consistent no matter what sized slate you are looking at.
Vegas Win% of Pitchers – 81% of the time the winning pitchers had a Vegas Win% of 50% or more. Again, on midsize or smaller slates, this number is lower than larger slates. Look further into their matchup and figure out if any pitchers need to be added to your pool or not.
Vegas Opposing Team Run Total – 78% of winning pitchers have had an opponent Vegas run total of 4.0 or under. The pattern here remains, smaller slates need more of the pitchers outside of the trends in your pool.
Pitcher K% – 94% of all winning pitchers have a K% of 20 or above in the Study Hub. 69% of the pitchers have above a 25% in this category. This number is higher in these small and midsize slates than in the larger slates.
Pitcher thoughts – As we look at this we see that we can open up our pitcher metrics a little bit in regards to Vegas numbers, but as far as K% and other Hub based numbers, we want to keep our standards right where they are.
Draftkings Season Totals
FANDUEL
What sticks out to me! – Midsized slates
Since today the main slate is 7 games on Fanduel I wanted to focus there, everything you see here will strictly be for midsized slates
Hitter Rating – Hitters with a rating of 50 or above have been used 86% of the time in winning lineups. On Fanduel, this number has been consistent no matter what the slate size.
Stack Size – On Fanduel, it is easier to recognize your stack path. Stacks of 4 players of some kind have been in winning lineups 72% of the time on these sized slates. Remember, this means that only 28% of the time a 3,2, or 1 offs have won tournaments. Stick to your process.
Hub Stack Ratings – Only 64% of winners on midsized slates have had a stack rating of 55 or above. Open your process a bit, see which team might have a chance to surprise people today.
Vegas Implied Run Totals for Stacks – 62% of the time in midsized slates the winning stack has had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 or above. Again, open up your process just a little bit here, but look at more than just the Vegas numbers on these midsize slates.
Stacks thought – As with Draftkings, on midsized slates these trends have a little lower percentage than on larger slates, expect a little more leeway in your stack settings to accommodate for this. Look more into the matchup itself and see where a lower rated or lower Vegas Implied team might be in a good spot to have a nice night.
Pitcher TROF Projection – 92% of the time the winning lineup pitcher had a projection of 25 or above. I love this stat. It has been consistent all season on all slate sizes.
Pitcher TROF Rating – 98% of the time the pitcher in the winning lineup has a rating of 50 or above. Yup, 98%. 82% of the time the winning lineup pitcher was 60 or above for their rating. Again, consistent numbers across slate sizes.
Vegas Win% of Pitchers – 76% of the time the winning pitchers had a Vegas Win% of 50% or more. On midsize or smaller slates, this number is lower than larger slates. Look further into their matchup and figure out if any pitchers need to be added to your pool or not.
Vegas Opposing Team Run Total – 84% of winning pitchers have had an opponent Vegas run total of 4.0 or under. This number drops a little in the midsize slate range, but not really a lot like we saw on Draftkings, I still like it at 84%.
Pitcher K% – 92% of all winning pitchers have a K% of 20 or above in the Study Hub. Still look for strikeout upside when picking pitchers no matter the slate size on Fanduel.
Pitcher thoughts – Same as Draftkings, as we look at this we see that we can open up our pitcher metrics a little bit in regards to Vegas numbers, but as far as K% and other Hub based numbers, we want to keep our standards right where they are.
Fanduel Season Totals
That is our breakdown for today. As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel. I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.
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