NASCAR DFS Xfinity Series Preview | Auto Club Speedway | Production Alliance 300

NASCAR DFS Xfinity Series Preview | Auto Club Speedway | Production Alliance 300

As usual, it was an entertaining weekend in Daytona featuring last lap wrecks in all three series! While superspeedway racing is quite entertaining, it’s more exciting to go to Fontana, California this week from a fantasy perspective. Intermediate tracks, especially those with long green flag runs, are much more predictable, lending more credence to prior results, practice data, and projections. 

Opening Lap

Auto Club Speedway is a 2.0-mile track known for its multiple racing grooves, long green runs, and high tire wear. Speed and tire management tend to correlate most with success, but a bad pit stop can make a driver’s day much tougher. Teams should take tires on almost every stop given the degradation rate, so pit strategy, with regards to taking two tires or no tires, should have minimal impact.

Comparable tracks include Darlington, Homestead-Miami, and Atlanta for their high banking and tire wear. Many drivers like to utilize a groove right against the wall to maximize speed. Michigan is also comparable as another 2.0-mile, multiple groove oval.

Saturday’s Production Alliance 300 is scheduled for 150 laps, yielding a maximum possible 100 dominator points, which will be essential to DFS success, unlike last weekend in Daytona.

Stage 1: Track Trends to Know

• Winners from the last 8 Xfinity Series races at Auto Club Speedway have come from the following starting positions: 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 7th, 6th, 6th, 8th, and 1st. 

Unlike Daytona, drivers starting in the top 10 will be strong contenders to make optimal lineups this week. They are more likely to have speed based on qualifying, more likely to score dominator points, more likely to win the race and more likely to win you money.

• The polesitter has led an average of 45 laps over the past 7 Fontana races.

Though none of these drivers won the race, they had the potential for huge DraftKings score. As long as wrecks do not occur, the polesitter typically leads most, if not all, of the laps in the first stage. The 2nd and 3rd highest average laps led also come from the 2nd and 3rd starting spots with 19 and 11 laps, respectively. Rostering at least one driver from the first two rows should be a winning strategy.

• 37 (92.5%) of the 40 drivers scoring a top 10 DraftKings score at Auto Club Speedway over the past 4 races starting 20th or better. 

Further, 21 of those scores came from drivers starting in the top 10. Given the long green flag runs, slower cars starting farther toward the back are more likely to be lapped, limiting their place differential upside. Only ONE top 10 DK performance came from a starting position worse than 30th.

Like what you’re reading? Join Team Rise or Fall today for exclusive access to the Study Hub, premium articles, and core plays for NASCAR and all other major DFS sports!

Stage 2: Optimal Lineup Construction

• Target 5.5x value from each driver. 

Of the 78 Xfinity drivers appearing in optimal lineups at intermediate tracks in 2021, 73 of them (93.6%) achieved 5.5x value. Four of the remaining five who did not still scored more than 40 DK points. For what it’s worth, optimal lineups at comparable high wear tracks consisted entirely of drivers hitting 5.5x value.

• Dominator points are likely to come mainly from Joe Gibbs Racing and JR Motorsports drivers. 

JGR drivers have dominated recently at Auto Club Speedway, leading 100+ laps at the past two races. They’ve also led 437/900 (48.6%) of the laps in the past six races. JR Motorsports drivers have not seen the same success at this track specifically. However, they were featured in 5/6 optimal lineups at comparable tracks in 2021 due to their exceptional tire management.

Despite Kaulig Racing’s season-long success, they were average on intermediate tracks in 2021. Also, Austin Cindric and Penske Racing will not be racing, opening the door for more dominant performances from JGR and JRM.

• Roster 2 to 3 drivers priced above $9,000 and 1 to 2 drivers priced below $6,000. 

93.9% of optimal lineups in 2021 met this criteria. This makes sense as drivers in the high-priced tier are likely to score the large amount of dominator points. In order to capture that pool of points, salary relief from punts is necessary. Since place differential comes at a premium, drivers in the mid-priced range, for the most part, have limited upside.

Final Lap

Due to the time constraints of work schedule and same day qualifying, there will be no Xfinity Series picks article this week, but follow the information above and prepare for your victory burnout!

If you have any questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter or hit me up in the Team Rise or Fall Discord!