NFL DFS Week 1 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel
NFL DFS Week 1 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel
Welcome to the NFL DFS Week 1 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel! I’m going to highlight players each week that stand out in the Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. This is a data driven piece with no personal bias. Let’s get into it!
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Quarterback
Josh Allen – DraftKings $7,400 FanDuel Rating: $8,100
Josh Allen comes in as the highest rated quarterback on both sites at a rating of 98.36 on DraftKings and 98.06 on FanDuel. Allen also grades out as the highest value at Quarterback on Fanduel and fourth highest on DraftKings.
Likely boosting those projections is his massive projected volume at 36.08 pass attempts and 7.9 rushing attempts. High volume and a 27 point team total makes Allen appealing at his price tag on both sites.
In the Range of Outcomes tab, Allen is given a 35.2% chance to score 29.2 points on DraftKings and a 38.5% chance to score 26.3 points on FanDuel.
Allen grades out as the highest floor Quarterback option on the main slate with a 75% chance to score 17.69 on DraftKings and 17.02 on FanDuel.
All signs point to Allen being a top cash Quarterback target and the upside to be in the winning tournament lineup.
Patrick Mahomes – DraftKings $8,100 FanDuel $8,800
Patrick Mahomes is the second highest rated Quarterback on both sites coming in at 97.59 on DraftKings and 97.17 on FanDuel.
With the highest team total on the slate of 29.75, Mahomes is projected for the most pass attempts, completions, passing yards, and touchdowns. Kansas City’s high volume passing game appears to have Mahomes as one of the elite options at Quarterback on the slate.
In the Range of Outcomes tab, Mahomes has a 30.4% chance to score 31.3 points on DraftKings and a 33.4% chance to score 28.4 points on FanDuel. Mahomes has a comparable floor to Josh Allen at 17.61 but, Allen takes the edge in ceiling outcomes.
Mahomes is a fine option in cash games and offers an elite ceiling in tournaments.
Running Back
Derrick Henry – DraftKings $8,800 FanDuel $8,900
Derrick Henry comes in as the second highest rated Running Back on DraftKings at 86.18 and the third highest on FanDuel at 85.44. Henry appears to be coming in under-owned on both sites coming in as the eleventh highest owned on DraftKings and the ninth highest owned on FanDuel.
Henry is projected for 21.5 rushing attempts and 105.74 rushing yards which are the highest marks on the slate. With a team total of 27.5, it appears that Henry will be an integral piece of the Titans’ offense in a high scoring game against the Cardinals.
In the Range of Outcomes tab, Henry is given a 13.5% chance to score 33.4 points on DraftKings and a 16.5% chance to score 28.7 points on FanDuel. Henry has the third highest ceiling among the elite tier of Running Backs that includes Christian McCaffery, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara with the rest of that group garnering over 10% ownership on DraftKings.
If Henry remains under-owned, he looks like a top pivot in tournaments.
Joe Mixon – DraftKings $6,200 FanDuel $7,200
Joe Mixon comes in as the sixth highest rated Running Back on both sites at 65.09 on DraftKings and 64.45 on FanDuel. At his price tag, he grades out as one of the top value option in the Rise or Fall Ratings.
Joe Mixon is projected for 20.99 total touches and 97.99 total yards which is a lot of volume for a player in his price range. Cincinnati should be in a competitive game aginst Minnesota with a spread of only +3.5.
In the Range of Outcomes tab, Mixon is given a 19% chance to score 25.6 points on DraftKings and a 15.2% chance to score 23.6 points on FanDuel. Mixon has the fifth highest floor among Running Backs on DraftKings and the sixth highest on FanDuel.
Mixon grades out as a solid RB2 option on both sites in cash games and tournaments.
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Wide Receiver
Davante Adams – DraftKings $8,300 FanDuel $8,600
Davante Adams comes in as the highest rated Wide Receiver on DraftKings at 86.87 and the third highest rated on FanDuel at 75.27. With a team total of 27, Green Bay should score at volume and Adams is projected as the number one receiving target.
Adams is projected for 9.5 targets and 94.35 receiving yards against New Orleans. With his elite projection comes his high ownership projection as one of the highest owned receivers on both sites.
In the Range of Outcomes tab, Adams is given a 17.1% chance to score 31.9 points on DraftKings and an 11.6% chance to score 27.8 points on FanDuel. Adams will be popular but, he comes with the highest floor and ceiling at his position.
Davante Adams grades out as a top play in cash games and a viable option in tournaments.
Tee Higgins – DraftKings $4,700 FanDuel $6,000
Tee Higgins comes in as the sixth highest rated Wide Receiver on DraftKings at 74.06 and the ninth highest rated on FanDuel at 63.17. He grades out as the top value option at his position in the Rise or Fall ratings.
Higgins is projected for 6 targets and 62.25 receiving yards against Minnesota. This production would give Higgins a score that would exceed the value needed for his price tag.
In the Range of Outcomes tab, Higgins is given a 20% chance to score 21.1 points on DraftKings and an 11.6% chance to score 20 points on FanDuel. Higgins has a better chance of being in a tournament winning lineup on DraftKings.
Tee Higgins is a top cash game play on both sites and is viable for tournaments on DraftKings.
Tight End
George Kittle – DraftKings $6,300 FanDuel $7,000
George Kittle comes in as the highest rated Tight End on DraftKings at 83.95 and the second highest rated on FanDuel at 73.08. His price tag is reasonable on both sites and he grades out as an elite option in the Rise or Fall ratings.
Kittle is projected for 7 targets and 74.24 receiving yards in a game where San Francisco has a team total of 26.25. Kittle is one of the few Tight Ends that are projected to have volume that mirrors that of a Wide Receiver.
In the Range of Outcomes tab, Kittle has a 12.5% chance to score 25.9 points on DraftKings and a 7% chance to score 23 points on FanDuel. Those seem like low marks compared to other positions but, that still has Kittle as a top three option at his position in terms of tournament winning upside.
Travis Kelce – DraftKings $8,300 FanDuel $8,500
Travis Kelce comes in as the second highest rated Tight End on DraftKings at 76.51 and the highest rated on FanDuel at 75.03. Even though Kelce is easily the highest priced Tight End, he grades out as an elite option at his position in the Rise or Fall Ratings.
Kelce is projected for 8.8 targets and 89.68 receiving yards against Cleveland. Kelce should be the highest volume target at his position with the highest ceiling.
In the Range of Outcomes tab, Kelce has a 14.1% chance to score 31.9 points on DraftKings and a 9.4% chance to score 27.5 points on FanDuel. Like Kittle, those are both in the top three at his position and the highest probability to be in the winning lineup on FanDuel.
Travis Kelce is an elite option at Tight End on both sites for cash games and tournaments.
Good Luck on Sunday!
–TMay
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