🏈NFL DFS Week 17 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel

NFL DFS Week 17 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel

Welcome to the NFL DFS Week 17 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel! I’m going to highlight players each week that stand out in the Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. This is a data driven piece with no personal bias. When referring to the Range of Outcomes tab, those numbers are referring to GPP target scores. Let’s get into it!

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes – DraftKings $7,800 FanDuel $8,500

Patrick Mahomes comes in as the highest projected quarterback on both sites at 22.43 on DraftKings and 21.65 on FanDuel. Kansas City has a team total of 27.5 against Cincinnati this week.

Mahomes is projected for 37.87 pass attempts, 302.17 passing yards, and 2.14 passing touchdowns. Kansas City should get Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce back this week which makes Mahomes look really good in a high scoring game environment.

In the Range of Outcomes tab, Mahomes has a 23.9% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 28.2% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Mahomes has the second highest ceiling on the slate and looks like a great tournament play.

Jalen Hurts – DraftKings $6,600 FanDuel $7,900

Jalen Hurts comes in as the sixth highest projected quarterback on DraftKings at 20.89 and the fifth highest on FanDuel at 20.36. Philadelphia takes on Washington with a team total of 25.

Hurts is projected for 28.78 pass attempts, 218.14 passing yards, 5.53 rushing attempts, 28.24 rushing yards, and 1.82 total touchdowns. Hurts has a rating over 100 on both sites making him an elite option this week.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Hurts has a 40.4% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 40% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Hurts has tournament winning upside and is a top option if you want to run a naked QB.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor – DraftKings $9,000 FanDuel $10,000

Jonathan Taylor comes in as the highest projected running back on both sites at 18.07 on DraftKings and 16.36 on FanDuel. Taylor is the top spend up option at his position in a matchup against a mediocre Las Vegas defense.

Taylor is projected for 11.92 rushing attempts, 53.38 rushing yards, 2.09 receptions, 19.18 receiving yards, and 0.63 total touchdowns. Taylor has averaged 29.3 touches over the past four weeks and should see a ton of work with Carson Wentz out.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Taylor has a 21% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 17.8% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Taylor is the highest rated running back and has an optimal% over 20% on both sites.

Chase Edmonds – DraftKings $5,700 FanDuel $6,500

Chase Edmonds comes in as the third highest projected running back on DraftKings at 14.66 and the eleventh highest projected on FanDuel at 10.24. Edmonds is currently the top value at his position on DraftKings at a cheap price tag.

Edmonds is projected for 10.32 rushing attempts, 42.35 rushing yards, 3.27 receptions, 27.81 receiving yards, and 0.42 total touchdowns. Edmonfds saw a total of 24 touches last week with James Conner out. If Conner is out again, Edmonds looks like a top value target on DraftKings.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Edmonds has a 32.3% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 29.9% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Edmonds grades as a top cash and GPP play on DraftKings and an interesting tournament option on FanDuel.

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Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown – DraftKings $6,100 FanDuel $8,200

Antonio Brown comes in as the second highest projected wide receiver on both sites at 17.19 on DraftKings and 13.25 on FanDuel. Brown is the highest rated wide receiver on the slate and Tampa Bay has a team total of 29.5.

Brown is projected for 15 targets, 58.16 receiving yards, and 0.46 receiving touchdowns. Tampa Bay will be without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin again which opens the door for a ton of volume for Antonio Brown.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Brown has a 25.5% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 6.6% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Brown grades out as the top wide receiver this week with a rating over 100 on both sites.

Tyreek Hill – DraftKings $8,300 FanDuel $8,200

Tyreek Hill comes in as the highest projected wide receiver on both sites at 17.19 on DraftKings and 13.62 on FanDuel. Hill has a market share of 19.51% over the past four weeks which could be a bit skewed due to Hill being limited last week.

Hill is projected for 6 targets, 49.75 receiving yards, and 0.4 receiving touchdowns. Cincinnati ranks 29th against opposing receivers which bodes very well for Hill.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Hill has a 16.6% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 15.5% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Hill fits into the stack with Mahomes and has the upside to break the slate.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert – DraftKings $5,100 FanDuel $5,800

Dallas Goedert comes in as the third highest projected tight end on both sites at 10.9 on DraftKings and 8.72 on FanDuel. Goedert offers salary relief and Washington ranks 24th against opposing tight ends.

Goedert is projected for 6.3 targets, 39.42 receiving yards, and 0.22 receiving touchdowns. Goedert has a market share of 25.33% over the past four weeks.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Goedert has a 10.1% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 8.3% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Goedert fits into a small stack with Hurts and grades out as a top tight end this week.

Kyle Pitts – DraftKings $5,900 FanDuel $6,000

Kyle Pitts comes in as the fifth highest projected tight end on DraftKings at 10.05 and the sixth highest on FanDuel at 8.42. Pitts has an elite market share of 22.3% over the past four weeks.

Pitts is projected for 6.5 targets, 37.14 receiving yards, and 0.07 receiving touchdowns. The low touchdown number is likely due to Atlanta’s low total of 15.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Pitts has a 8.5% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 9.9% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Pitts has a high market share and a low price tag. He grades as a high upside tournament play this week.

Good Luck on Sunday!
–TMay