UFC 300 Lineup Slate Strategy

Best Cash Plays

In cash games, where stability and a high floor are paramount, the following fighters are your best bets:

1. Zhang Weili ($9,200)
   • Matchup: vs. Yan Xiaonan
   • Reason: Weili’s dominance in striking and grappling, combined with her consistent high scoring, makes her a reliable cash play. She’s expected to control the fight, offering a safe floor with potential for a finish.
     
     
2. Bo Nickal ($9,500)
   • Matchup: vs. Cody Brundage
   • Reason: Despite his high price, Nickal’s overwhelming odds to win early and decisively make him a solid cash game anchor. His track record of first-round finishes provides a secure floor.
     
     
3. Kayla Harrison ($9,300)
   • Matchup: vs. Holly Holm
   • Reason: Harrison’s grappling-heavy style and control time make her a safe play, albeit with a lower ceiling against a defensively solid Holm.

Best GPP Plays

For GPPs, where variance and ceiling are more crucial, consider these fighters:

1. Max Holloway ($7,400)
   • Matchup: vs. Justin Gaethje
   • Reason: Holloway’s volume striking and durability provide a high ceiling, especially if the fight goes the distance. At his price, he offers significant upside and leverage over higher-owned fighters.
     
     
2. Charles Oliveira ($7,500)
   • Matchup: vs. Arman Tsarukyan
   • Reason: As a submission specialist, Oliveira has the potential for a high-scoring finish. His underdog status and finishing ability make him a valuable GPP differential.
     
     
3. Justin Gaethje ($8,800)
   • Matchup: vs. Max Holloway
   • Reason: Known for his high-paced and brutal fights, Gaethje’s ability to score big in victories—especially by knockout—makes him an attractive GPP option.

Roster Construction Strategies

1. Balance High-Cost and Value Fighters:

• Spend up on reliable high scorers like Zhang Weili or Bo Nickal but balance your roster with lower-cost, high-upside fighters such as Max Holloway or Charles Oliveira.

2. Target Finishers:

• Prioritize fighters with a history of finishing their opponents, as finishes score additional points. Fighters like Nickal and Prochazka are prime examples.

3. Consider Fight Length:

• In fights expected to go the distance (like Zhang vs. Xiaonan or Gaethje vs. Holloway), stacking can be effective in cash games. These fights provide more opportunities for scoring through significant strikes and control times.

4. Leverage Public Sentiment:

• Use ownership projections to your advantage. If a fighter like Bo Nickal is projected to be extremely popular, considering a lesser-owned alternative in the same price range could differentiate your lineup in large-field tournaments.

5. Strategic Stacking:

• In cash games, stacking both fighters from a single fight, especially one expected to go the distance, can minimize risk and stabilize scoring. For GPPs, focus on potential fight finishers or lower-owned stacks to capitalize on variance.

Final Thoughts: With three title fights and numerous high-stakes matchups, UFC 300 presents unique challenges and opportunities for DFS players. By strategically selecting your lineup based on the fight dynamics, fighter tendencies, and contest type, you can significantly enhance your chances of success.

Whether you’re playing in cash games or aiming for the top in GPPs, thoughtful roster construction and strategic decision-making will be key to navigating this exciting slate. Good luck, and enjoy the fights!