UFC Vegas 91 Slate Strategy

Top Cash Game Plays

Cash games require consistency and lower risk. Here are fighters who offer stability and high floors:

• James Llontop ($8,200): A massive favorite with strong odds to win inside the distance. His high volume and finishing ability make him a near lock for cash games, ensuring a solid floor with significant upside.
• Matheus Nicolau ($8,700): While his volume might not be the highest, his technical striking and strong defense make him a safe play. Nicolau’s ability to control the fight pace and execute a strategic game plan provides a stable floor.
• Victor Henry ($9,500): Priced high, but justifiably so. Henry’s versatility and high output in both striking and grappling make him a prime candidate for cash games, where his ability to score across multiple DFS categories is invaluable.

Top GPP Game Plays

GPPs favor fighters with high ceilings and the potential for big performances, ideal for large-field tournaments:

• Jhonata Diniz ($9,000): Diniz has shown knockout power with all his wins coming by finish. He’s a strong play in GPPs, where his ability to end the fight early can differentiate your lineup.
• Karine Silva ($8,500): Known for her ferocity and finishing skills, Silva is likely to score high if she performs to expectation. Her aggressive approach can lead to early finishes, boosting her DFS score massively.
• Ryan Spann ($8,900): While expensive, Spann’s finishing ability and experience make him a potential GPP standout, especially if he can leverage his size and grappling skills.

Roster Construction Strategies

• Balancing Acts: Mix high-cost, high-reward fighters with underpriced value picks. This balance allows you to afford the staples while taking calculated risks on lower-cost fighters with upside.
• Stacking the Main Event: In cash games, consider stacking the 5-round main event between Nicolau and Perez. This ensures you capture all potential scoring from a fight expected to go long, with both fighters having decent floors.
• Targeting Finishes: Look for fighters with strong finishing histories or matchups that stylistically favor early stoppages. These fighters are more volatile but can skyrocket your GPP scores.

Key Insights on Matchups

• Llontop vs. Padilla: Llontop is favored to win and should dominate in his debut, making him almost a mandatory play in all formats.
• Silva vs. Lipski: Silva’s power and grappling edge make her a high-ceiling play in GPPs. Lipski’s recent form improvement makes her a potential upset pick, but Silva’s finishing ability should prevail.
• Spann vs. Guskov: A classic high-risk, high-reward scenario. Spann’s experience gives him the edge, but Guskov’s knockout power keeps him relevant in GPP discussions.

Final Thoughts:

For UFC Vegas 91, the DFS strategy revolves around identifying fighters who not only have the potential to win but can do so in a manner that maximizes their DFS scoring. Whether you’re playing in cash games or looking for that tournament-winning lineup in GPPs, focusing on fighters with high volume, strong finishing probabilities, and the skills to dominate their matchups will guide you to success.