MLB DFS Preview Friday 4/26/24

Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles

• Time/Ballpark: 7:05 PM EDT at Camden Yards
• Pitching Matchup: Ross Stripling (RHP, OAK) vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP, BAL)
• Vegas Line: OAK +215, BAL -260, Total: 7.5

• Corbin Burnes remains a dominant force, boasting a stellar 0.269 xWOBA and a sharp 2.77 xERA. His ability to suppress hits (28% HC%) and generate ground balls (44% GB%) makes him a tough opponent for the Athletics.
• Ross Stripling has struggled, evident from his elevated 5.35 ERA and 0.316 xWOBA. His lower strikeout rate (18%) and higher contact allowed (31% HC%) could spell trouble against an Orioles lineup that excels against right-handers.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays

• Time/Ballpark: 7:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
• Pitching Matchup: Gavin Stone (RHP, LAD) vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP, TOR)
• Vegas Line: LAD -130, TOR +110, Total: 9

• Chris Bassitt’s higher xWOBA of 0.370 highlights some vulnerability, particularly with his flyball tendencies (29% HC%). Dodgers’ hitters could capitalize on this.
• Gavin Stone, despite a challenging 7.9 ERA, shows potential with a decent 44% GB%. His matchup against a Blue Jays team that leverages right-handed pitching might be less forgiving.

Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox

• Time/Ballpark: 7:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
• Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga (LHP, CHC) vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP, BOS)
• Vegas Line: CHC -110, BOS -106, Total: 8

• Kutter Crawford and Shota Imanaga both display strong underlying metrics, with xERAs of 2.61 and 3.36, respectively. This could lead to a pitcher’s duel, emphasizing strikeouts and limited baserunners, evident from their high K% and low BB%.

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets

• Time/Ballpark: 7:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
• Pitching Matchup: Miles Mikolas (RHP, STL) vs. Jose Butto (RHP, NYM)
• Vegas Line: STL +100, NYM -118, Total: 7.5

• Miles Mikolas’ high contact rates (35% HC%) and lower strikeouts (16% K%) suggest vulnerability, particularly against a Mets lineup that performs well against right-handers.
• Jose Butto, showing more control and efficiency with a 3.54 xERA, might find an edge over the Cardinals, who have struggled with consistency at the plate.

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

• Time/Ballpark: 7:10 PM EDT at Marlins Park
• Pitching Matchup: Trevor Williams (RHP, WAS) vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP, MIA)
• Vegas Line: WAS +144, MIA -172, Total: 8.5

• Jesus Luzardo presents a strong option with a 28% K% and decent ground ball tendencies. His matchup against a weaker Nationals lineup could favor him heavily.
• Trevor Williams may struggle, given his 5.2 ERA and high contact rates, against a Marlins team that has shown some prowess against right-handed pitching.

Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves

• Time/Ballpark: 7:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
• Pitching Matchup: Logan Allen (LHP, CLE) vs. Chris Sale (LHP, ATL)
• Vegas Line: CLE +172, ATL -205, Total: 9

• Chris Sale continues to impress with a 3.56 xERA and a strong 29% K%. His ability to dominate left-handed hitters will be crucial against a Guardians lineup that can struggle with power.
• Logan Allen faces a tough task against a Braves lineup that thrives against lefties, highlighted by their robust slugging and on-base percentages.

Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox

• Time/Ballpark: 7:40 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
• Pitching Matchup: Zach Eflin (RHP, TBR) vs. Chris Flexen (RHP, CHW)
• Vegas Line: TBR -250, CHW +205, Total: 8

• Zach Eflin shows strong potential with a solid 0.270 xWOBA and an impressive 2.80 xERA, complemented by his high ground ball rate (49% GB%). His control (3% BB%) and ability to limit hard contact (35% HC%) position him well against a White Sox lineup that struggles with consistency.
• Chris Flexen is on the flip side, with a concerning 0.376 xWOBA and a high 5.81 xERA. His struggles to keep the ball in the park and a high contact rate (36% HC%) may lead to difficulties against a Rays team that can exploit these weaknesses.

Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers

• Time/Ballpark: 8:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
• Pitching Matchup: Graham Ashcraft (RHP, CIN) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, TEX)
• Vegas Line: CIN +138, TEX -164, Total: 8.5

• Nathan Eovaldi maintains decent stats with a 0.325 xWOBA and 4.15 xERA, characterized by a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio and a high ground ball rate (50% GB%). His experience and pitch control could help mitigate a Reds offense that has moments of brilliance but often lacks consistency.
• Graham Ashcraft’s metrics, like a 0.301 xWOBA and 3.51 xERA, suggest potential, but his moderate strikeout rate (19% K%) and vulnerability to hard hits (30% HC%) might be challenging against a Rangers lineup that performs well at home.

New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers

• Time/Ballpark: 8:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
• Pitching Matchup: Luis Gil (RHP, NYY) vs. Colin Rea (RHP, MIL)
• Vegas Line: NYY -126, MIL +108, Total: 8.5

• Luis Gil impresses with a 0.237 xWOBA and a minuscule 2.15 xERA, indicating his capability to dominate on the mound with a high strikeout rate (35% K%) despite a somewhat elevated walk rate (20% BB%). His aggressive pitching style could prove effective against a Brewers lineup that has struggled against right-handed pitching.
• Colin Rea is at a disadvantage with a high 0.384 xWOBA and 6.12 xERA, showing susceptibility to giving up runs. His limited strikeout ability (20% K%) and issues with command could be exploited by a potent Yankees lineup.

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels

• Time/Ballpark: 9:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
• Pitching Matchup: Bailey Ober (RHP, MIN) vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP, LAA)
• Vegas Line: MIN -110, LAA -106, Total: 8.5

• Bailey Ober‘s ability to strike out batters (25% K%) coupled with a respectable 3.87 SIERA suggests he can handle pressure, but his 0.329 xWOBA indicates some vulnerability to getting hit. This matchup will test his resilience against an Angels lineup that can swing it well against right-handers.
• Patrick Sandoval, with a 0.343 xWOBA and a 4.69 xERA, must find ways to reduce hard contact (30% HC%) and improve his control (12% BB%). The Twins, known for their strategic hitting, could find ways to capitalize on any of Sandoval’s pitching inconsistencies.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners

• Time/Ballpark: 9:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
• Pitching Matchup: Zac Gallen (RHP, ARI) vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP, SEA)
• Vegas Line: ARI -132, SEA +112, Total: 7.5

• Zac Gallen comes in strong with a 0.303 xWOBA and a 3.56 xERA, demonstrating his capability to manage games effectively through a good mix of strikeouts (26% K%) and ground balls (42% GB%). His skills will be crucial in navigating a Mariners lineup that can be unpredictable.
• Emerson Hancock struggles with a higher 0.363 xWOBA and a 5.35 xERA. His lower strikeout rate (15% K%) and issues with command could be key factors that the Diamondbacks might exploit.

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres

• Time/Ballpark: 9:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
• Pitching Matchup: Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP, SDP)
• Vegas Line: PHI -112, SDP -104, Total: 7.5

• Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove both showcase strong xERA metrics (3.64 and 3.97, respectively), setting up what could be a tight pitcher’s duel. Both pitchers have effective strikeout capabilities (25% K% for Nola and 22% for Musgrove) and are proficient in controlling the game, making runs hard to come by in this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants

• Time/Ballpark: 10:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park
• Pitching Matchup: Quinn Priester (RHP, PIT) vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP, SFG)
• Vegas Line: PIT +130, SFG -154, Total: 8

• Kyle Harrison shows promise with a 0.323 xWOBA and 4.10 xERA, indicating his ability to maintain control and limit damage. His favorable matchup against the Pirates, who often struggle on the road, could tilt the scales in the Giants’ favor.
• Quinn Priester’s alarming 0.399 xWOBA and 6.72 xERA reveal significant challenges, particularly against a Giants lineup that can exploit left-handed pitching with their strong hitting metrics. His ability to induce ground balls (55% GB%) might help, but he’ll need to be cautious with his pitch selection.