UFC Vegas 91 DFS Fight by Fight Breakdown

1. Maheshate Hayisaer (9-3-0) vs. Gabriel Benitez (23-11-0)

• DK Salaries: Benitez ($7,400), Maheshate ($8,800)
• Vegas Odds: Benitez (+165), Maheshate (-200)
• Stance/Reach: Hayisaer: Orthodox, 71″; Benitez: Southpaw, 71″

Fight Breakdown: This bout features a clash of striking styles with the taller and more dynamic Maheshate against the veteran Benitez. Maheshate, known for his precision and power, faces a fighter in Benitez who brings a wealth of experience and a well-rounded skill set, especially in grappling. Despite Benitez’s recent vulnerability (KO losses in recent fights), his ability to blend strikes with takedowns could pose a challenge.

Key Points:

• Maheshate’s striking: Look for his precision and ability to manage distance.
• Benitez’s experience: His versatility and resilience could be pivotal.
• Finish potential: Both fighters have a high finish rate in their victories, indicating a possible early end.

DFS Insight: Maheshate’s higher salary reflects his finishing power and potential for a knockout, making him a strong play in DFS formats, especially if you’re banking on an early finish.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Maheshate Hayisaer

2. Ivana Petrovic (6-1-0) vs. Na Liang (19-7-0)

• DK Salaries: Petrovic ($9,400), Na ($6,800)
• Vegas Odds: Petrovic (-560), Na (+380)
• Stance/Reach: Petrovic: Southpaw, 70″; Liang: Orthodox, 67″

Fight Breakdown: Ivana Petrovic enters as a heavy favorite despite a limited UFC track record, banking on her strong grappling and physicality. Na Liang, on the other hand, offers more experience with a significant number of finishes but has struggled with consistency, especially under pressure. The disparity in reach and height may play a significant role, with Petrovic likely leveraging her physical advantages to control the pace and placement of the fight.

Key Points:

• Grappling prowess: Both fighters excel on the ground, but Petrovic’s physical edge might give her control.
• Experience vs. new blood: Liang’s extensive fight history vs. Petrovic’s fresher approach.
• Finish rate: High finish rates suggest neither fighter likes to leave it in the hands of the judges.

DFS Insight: Petrovic’s high DFS salary is justified if she executes her game plan but consider the value Liang might provide as a lower-cost, high-risk option given her finishing ability.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Ivana Petrovic (leaning towards the favorite given her physical and technical edges, despite Liang’s experience).

3. James Llontop (14-2-0) vs. Chris Padilla (13-6-0)

• DK Salaries: Padilla ($6,900), Llontop ($8,200)
• Vegas Odds: Padilla (+265), Llontop (-345)
• Stance/Reach: Llontop: Orthodox, 73″; Padilla: Orthodox, N/A

Fight Breakdown: James Llontop and Chris Padilla both step into the octagon for their UFC debut, bringing contrasting styles to this matchup. Llontop, known for his striking prowess and impressive finish rate, looks to leverage his reach and stand-up skills against Padilla, who brings a strong grappling background but inconsistent performances. Despite both fighters facing a step up in competition, Llontop’s performance in the Contender Series highlighted his readiness for the UFC stage.

Key Points:

• Striking vs. Wrestling: Llontop’s reach and striking against Padilla’s wrestling could define the clash.
• Debut Pressure: Both fighters making their first UFC appearance, handling pressure will be key.
• Finish Potential: High finish rates suggest that both fighters will be hunting for a decisive end.

DFS Insight: Llontop’s higher DFS salary reflects his finishing ability and striking advantage. His potential for a knockout makes him a valuable pick, especially given the wide odds suggesting a favorable outcome.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: James Llontop

Get more UFC Vegas 91 DFS Content here:
UFC DFS Study Hub  |  UFC DFS Projections  |  UFC Cash Cores  |  UFC GPP Cores  |  UFC Slate Notes

4. Ketlen Souza (13-4-0) vs. Marnic Mann (6-2-0)

• DK Salaries: Mann ($7,000), Souza ($9,200)
• Vegas Odds: Mann (+260), Souza (-325)
• Stance/Reach: Souza: Orthodox, 63″; Mann: Southpaw, 64″

Fight Breakdown: Both Ketlen Souza and Marnic Mann look to rebound from tough UFC debuts. Souza, with a more experienced background and a balanced skill set, faces Mann, who has shown potential in wrestling but struggled in her initial UFC test. Souza’s ability to blend her striking with the occasional takedown threat might trouble Mann, who will need to significantly step up her game to compete.

Key Points:

• Experience Factor: Souza’s greater fight experience and higher level of past competition may be crucial.
• Style Matchup: Souza’s striking versus Mann’s grappling—keeping the fight standing could be crucial for Souza.
• Caution in DFS: Given their shaky starts in the UFC, both fighters present risks in DFS lineups.

DFS Insight: Souza’s high salary is a gamble considering her unproven UFC record; however, her potential for controlling the fight and securing a finish could justify the investment for those willing to take a risk.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Ketlen Souza

5. Don’Tale Mayes (10-6-0) vs. Caio Machado (8-2-1)

• DK Salaries: Mayes ($7,900), Machado ($8,300)
• Vegas Odds: Mayes (-105), Machado (-115)
• Stance/Reach: Mayes: Orthodox, 81″; Machado: Southpaw, 78″

Fight Breakdown: In a battle of the heavyweights, Don’Tale Mayes and Caio Machado bring contrasting fighting styles to the octagon. Mayes, known for his striking power and impressive reach, faces Machado, who boasts high-volume striking coupled with superior wrestling skills. Both fighters have shown finishing ability, but Machado’s more rounded skill set might give him the edge in a prolonged fight unless Mayes can utilize his reach to land a knockout blow early.

Key Points:

• Reach and Power: Mayes’s significant reach advantage and knockout power.
• Wrestling Advantage: Machado’s wrestling could neutralize Mayes’s striking.
• Finish Potential: High likelihood of a finish given both fighters’ track records.

DFS Insight: This matchup could be a hidden gem for DFS players. Machado’s balanced approach and potential for control time and finishes make him a solid pick, especially with slightly higher odds favoring him.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Caio Machado

6. Austin Hubbard (15-7-0) vs. Michal Figlak (18-1-0)

• DK Salaries: Hubbard ($7,800), Figlak ($8,400)
• Vegas Odds: Hubbard (+140), Figlak (-165)
• Stance/Reach: Both fighters: Orthodox, Hubbard 71″, Figlak 70″

Fight Breakdown: Austin Hubbard, with more UFC experience but a mixed record, squares off against Michal Figlak, who seeks redemption after a tough UFC debut. Both fighters share a similar height and reach, creating an evenly matched scenario in the stand-up game. However, Hubbard’s proven grappling skills could be the deciding factor, as Figlak has shown vulnerabilities when the fight goes to the ground.

Key Points:

• Experience Factor: Hubbard’s UFC experience could be crucial against the less tested Figlak.
• Grappling vs. Striking: Hubbard’s superior wrestling could dominate Figlak’s striking-focused approach.
• Action-Packed Match: Expect a lot of exchanges, with Hubbard looking to take it to the mat.

DFS Insight: Hubbard presents excellent value in DFS, given his underdog status and potential to outwork Figlak on the ground. His ability to score points through takedowns and control time makes him an attractive pick for those looking to differentiate their lineup.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Austin Hubbard

Get more UFC Vegas 91 DFS Content here:
UFC DFS Study Hub  |  UFC DFS Projections  |  UFC Cash Cores  |  UFC GPP Cores  |  UFC Slate Notes

7. Rani Yahya (28-11-1) vs. Victor Henry (23-6-0)

• DK Salaries: Yahya ($6,700), Henry ($9,500)
• Vegas Odds: Yahya (+360), Henry (-470)
• Stance/Reach: Yahya: Orthodox, 67″; Henry: Switch, 68″

Fight Breakdown: Rani Yahya, a grappling wizard with an impressive submission record, faces a tough challenge in Victor Henry, who has demonstrated versatility and resilience in his UFC tenure. Henry’s ability to maintain a high pace and his adeptness at both striking and grappling make him a formidable opponent for Yahya. Given Yahya’s reliance on grappling and lack of striking power, Henry’s strategy will likely focus on keeping the fight standing, where he can capitalize on his volume and mixed skill set.

Key Points:

• Striking vs. Grappling: Henry’s striking and pace against Yahya’s world-class grappling.
• Fight IQ: Henry’s adaptability and fight management could steer the bout in his favor.
• Finish Potential: Henry’s mixed finish record suggests he can handle Yahya’s submission threats.

DFS Insight: Victor Henry’s high DFS salary reflects his potential for a significant scoring night, especially if he can prevent the fight from going to the ground and exploit Yahya’s weaker stand-up game.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Victor Henry

8. Tim Means (33-15-1) vs. Uros Medic (9-2-0)

• DK Salaries: Means ($7,100), Medic ($9,100)
• Vegas Odds: Means (+250), Medic (-310)
• Stance/Reach: Means: Orthodox, 75″; Medic: Southpaw, 71″

Fight Breakdown: Tim Means, known for his high-volume striking and durability, faces Uros Medic, a fighter recognized for his explosive power and aggressive stand-up game. Medic, looking to rebound from a submission loss, faces a veteran in Means who can leverage his experience and reach advantage to dictate the pace of the fight. While Means has shown a preference for striking lately, his well-roundedness allows him the flexibility to take the fight to the ground, where he might have an advantage given Medic’s previous vulnerabilities.

Key Points:

• Experience vs. Power: Means’s extensive fight experience and reach vs. Medic’s knockout power.
• Striking Battle: Both fighters prefer stand-up, making striking exchanges crucial.
• Tactical Adjustments: Means’s potential to mix in wrestling could disrupt Medic’s rhythm.

DFS Insight: Tim Means offers value in DFS due to his lower salary and potential to outperform expectations against a less experienced opponent. His ability to survive early flurries and possibly secure late-round dominance or a finish could make him a savvy pick.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Tim Means

9. Jonathan Pearce (14-5-0) vs. David Onama (11-2-0)

• DK Salaries: Pearce ($8,600), Onama ($7,600)
• Vegas Odds: Pearce (-175), Onama (+145)
• Stance/Reach: Pearce: Switch, 71″; Onama: Orthodox, 74″

Fight Breakdown: This bout promises to be highly competitive, featuring two well-rounded fighters with strong grappling foundations and impressive finish rates. Jonathan Pearce brings a slight advantage in wrestling and ground-and-pound, which might be pivotal in this matchup. David Onama, known for his resilience and effective striking, will need to keep the fight standing and exploit his reach advantage to counter Pearce’s wrestling. Given both fighters’ ability to score finishes and rack up significant DFS points through volume and grappling, this fight is a prime candidate for high DFS scores.

Key Points:

• Grappling vs. Striking: Pearce’s wrestling against Onama’s striking reach.
• High Scoring Potential: Both fighters have histories of finishing fights and scoring high in DFS.
• Tactical Battle: The fight could hinge on Pearce’s ability to control Onama on the ground.

DFS Insight: Pearce is a strong choice in DFS given his slightly higher price but robust scoring potential through takedowns and ground control. Onama presents a valuable underdog pick due to his finishing ability and lower ownership.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Jonathan Pearce

Get more UFC Vegas 91 DFS Content here:
UFC DFS Study Hub  |  UFC DFS Projections  |  UFC Cash Cores  |  UFC GPP Cores  |  UFC Slate Notes

10. Jhonata Diniz (14-7-0) vs. Austen Lane (12-4-0)

• DK Salaries: Lane ($7,200), Diniz ($9,000)
• Vegas Odds: Lane (+200), Diniz (-245)
• Stance/Reach: Diniz: Orthodox, 79″; Lane: Orthodox, 80″

Fight Breakdown: This heavyweight clash is set to be explosive, with both fighters possessing significant knockout power and a tendency to finish fights early. Jhonata Diniz, despite less experience in the UFC, shows a commanding presence with his striking and ability to end fights decisively. Austen Lane, coming off a swift knockout loss, will be eager to demonstrate his resilience and power. The matchup is likely to end in a knockout, making it a critical target for GPP contests due to the high finish probability.

Key Points:

• Knockout Power: Both fighters have a track record of early finishes.
• High-Risk, High-Reward: Essential target for GPPs due to the volatile nature of the matchup.
• Physical Matchup: Similar in size and reach, the bout may come down to who lands the first significant strike.

DFS Insight: Diniz’s higher salary reflects his finishing ability and favored status, making him a strong pick for those seeking a likely knockout. Lane offers value as a lower-cost option with the potential for a surprise finish.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Jhonata Diniz

11. Karine Silva (17-4-0) vs. Ariane Lipski (17-8-0)

• DK Salaries: Silva ($8,500), Lipski ($7,700)
• Vegas Odds: Silva (-150), Lipski (+125)
• Stance/Reach: Silva: Orthodox, 67″; Lipski: Orthodox, 67″

Fight Breakdown: Karine Silva enters this fight with a string of impressive performances, showcasing her aggressive grappling and ability to finish fights in various ways. Ariane Lipski, after a rocky start in the UFC, has found form lately but faces a tough challenge in Silva, who has demonstrated devastating power and versatility on the ground. Silva’s strength and submission skills will be key, especially against Lipski, who has shown vulnerabilities in her striking defense and has been knocked out in critical fights. This matchup will likely see Silva exploiting these openings, aiming to continue her rise in the division.

Key Points:

• Striking Power: Silva’s ability to finish fights with strikes or submissions.
• Grappling Edge: Silva’s superior wrestling could neutralize Lipski’s ground game.
• Durability Concerns: Lipski’s past knockout losses could play into Silva’s hands.

DFS Insight: Silva is a solid DFS pick due to her finishing ability and dominant style, making her worth the investment despite the higher salary. Lipski provides a riskier option, potentially offering high rewards if she can leverage her experience and recent improvements.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Karine Silva

Co-Main Event: Ryan Spann (21-9-0) vs. Bogdan Guskov (15-3-0)

• DK Salaries: Spann ($8,900), Guskov ($7,300)
• Vegas Odds: Spann (-200), Guskov (+165)
• Stance/Reach: Spann: Orthodox, 79″; Guskov: Orthodox, 76″

Fight Breakdown: Ryan Spann, a seasoned fighter with significant experience in the UFC’s light heavyweight division, faces Bogdan Guskov, a powerful striker with less octagon experience but a knack for ending fights early. Spann’s broader skill set and size advantage might play crucial roles, particularly if he can leverage his reach and grappling skills. Guskov, known for his knockout power, poses a real threat if he can keep the fight standing and land effective strikes. This matchup is a classic striker vs. grappler scenario, where Spann will look to avoid Guskov’s power shots and potentially bring the fight to the ground.

Key Points:

• Experience vs. Power: Spann’s comprehensive skill set against Guskov’s striking prowess.
• Physical Attributes: Spann’s size could be an advantage in both striking and grappling exchanges.
• Finish Probability: High likelihood of a finish given both fighters’ track records.

DFS Insight: Given the high finish potential, targeting this fight in DFS is advisable. Spann, despite the higher salary, could offer significant points through control and potential submission, while Guskov is a less expensive, high-risk, high-reward option that could pay off if he lands a knockout.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Ryan Spann

Both fights provide intriguing matchups in DFS, with significant potential for finishes. Silva and Spann are favorites with reasons, but both Lipski and Guskov offer the volatility that can be exploited in GPPs for their potential to upset or finish fights early.

Main Event: Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1) vs. Alex Perez (24-8-0)

• DK Salaries: Nicolau ($8,700), Perez ($7,500)
• Vegas Odds: Nicolau (-185), Perez (+155)
• Stance/Reach: Nicolau: Orthodox, 66″; Perez: Orthodox, 65″

Fight Breakdown: Matheus Nicolau, with a well-rounded game highlighted by technical striking and strong grappling skills, faces Alex Perez, who is in a must-win situation given his recent string of losses against top-tier competition. Nicolau’s last fight ended in a loss that snapped a four-fight winning streak, but he has consistently shown he can compete at a high level in the UFC. Perez, on the other hand, is a durable fighter whose losses have come against some of the division’s best, indicating he’s still competitive at a high level.

This matchup is crucial for both fighters but particularly for Perez, who needs to demonstrate he can still hang with top contenders. Nicolau, meanwhile, will look to bounce back and solidify his place among the flyweight division’s elite.

Key Points:

• Striking Defense: Nicolau’s striking defense could play a critical role in neutralizing Perez’s output.
• Experience Under Pressure: Both fighters have significant experience, but Perez’s recent record against elite opponents could either be an edge or a hindrance based on his confidence entering this fight.
• Endurance and Pace: The ability to maintain pace over five rounds could be decisive, especially if Perez tries to push the action to test Nicolau’s conditioning following his knockout loss.

DFS Insight: Nicolau, with his higher price tag, is expected to perform well given his technical advantages and overall fight IQ. However, his scoring might not be optimal for DFS due to typically lower volume. Perez offers potential value at a lower salary. If he can extend the fight and increase his output, he could be a beneficial pick for those looking to differentiate their lineups in GPPs.

UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Matheus Nicolau

This main event offers a compelling narrative with Nicolau looking to reassert his status in the division and Perez fighting to remain relevant among the flyweight contenders.

For DFS players, this fight might require a balanced approach, possibly including both fighters in different lineups to capitalize on potential outcomes. Nicolau is the safer pick based on recent performances and technical skills, but Perez should not be underestimated given his experience and back-against-the-wall situation.