MLB DFS Stacks, Pitching, & Hitting Targets | DraftKings & FanDuel MLB Picks 7/21

MLB DFS Strategy Study Hub Session 7/21

There are many things that you can do with our MLB DFS study hub. It’s loaded with information and has many different functions that you can mess around with. We have these study hubs for MLB DFS, NBA DFS, NFL DFS, NASCAR DFS, NHL DFS, PGA DFS, and MMA DFS. Today, I wanted to break down different ways to use the Study Hub with examples of filters used. These are up to the user for what metrics and at what levels they’d like to use for each category. The world is your oyster!

Hot Hitting Teams

These are the last 14-days of team-by-team splits vs. starting pitcher-handedness. Basically, you can get a quick glimpse of which teams are HOT vs. handedness of pitcher based on splits alone.

The wOBA/ISO Hot Hitters Club

This is a list of hitters with a .400 wOBA / .300 ISO split with at least 20 Plate Appearances over the last 30-days of baseball.

MLB DFS Strategy DraftKings Targets

This list is compiled by sorting in the MLB DFS Study Hub. The DraftKings Rating category was filtered to 75 and above. The projections category was filtered by “Above Average”. The DraftKings Value category was filtered by “Above Average”. The DraftKings ownership % category was filtered by players less than 10% owned (filtered as 0.1 to get this result).

MLB DFS Strategy FanDuel Targets

This list is compiled by sorting in the MLB DFS Study Hub. The FanDuel Rating category was filtered to 75 and above. The projections category was filtered by “Above Average”. The FanDuel Value category was filtered by “Above Average”. The FanDuel ownership % category was filtered by players less than 10% owned (filtered as 0.1 to get this result).

MLB DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Pitchers Targets List

These targets were created by sorting the DraftKings Rating and FanDuel Rating to 75 or higher. The DraftKings projections and FanDuel projections were filtered by “Above Average”. The DraftKings value and FanDuel value were sorted by “Above Average”. The FanDuel ownership and DraftKings ownership were not filtered for this shortlist.

** Today’s Hub had a little hiccup – I’m not using the 75 rating as a baseline rather filtering as above average **

High-Upside and Potentially Moderate to Low Ownership MLB DFS Hitting Targets

Study Hub Filters Used

• DraftKings projection / FanDuel projection “Above Average”
• DraftKings value / FanDuel value “Above Average”
• DraftKings ownership / FanDuel ownership “Less than 10%”
• wOBA greater than .400 over the last 30-days against the pitcher handedness
• ISO greater than .300 over the last 30-days against the pitcher handedness

MLB DFS Building Blocks – Reviewing 7/20

Before we can look forward we always have to take a look backward and see what went right and what went wrong with out process. Yesterday was not a great GPP day for me and I want to take a look at where I went wrong. Here is where I ended up:

Based on my article from yesterday, I know I was going to focus on the Turbo slate. I had to make some changes last minute due to the Toronto/Boston game being cancelled. The first thing I did was crunch a raw optimal using our projections and then a raw optimal using our ratings. This was the initial result:

As I said in my write up yesterday I know that Skubal was locked in as my SP2. I was able to get him at 21% ownership which allowed me to leverage the field. I knew Darvish was going to be chalky but was hoping he would bounce back after a couple subpar outings and he disappointed.

In terms of batters I knew I wanted to have a 5 man stack of the Reds and both the ratings a projections agreed. I tried to get overly cute and play the splits rather than listening to what was being spit out. I know I’m not the only one who falls into this trap as apparent in discord. The toughest decision for me was Aquino vs Naquin. The price point was essentially the same with the difference being only $100. In reviewing yesterday’s hub Aquino was expected to carry a higher ownership, but he also had a higher projection and rating.

That one single decision was the difference between finishing 4th and not cashing. I understand its easy to look back and play Monday-morning quarterback but the numbers justified paying Aquino over Naquin. I think sometimes we overthink the process and want to prove that we know the game better than the numbers. I encourage to go back and review your process not only when you lose, but when you win. This will allow you to be a better DFS player overall and help refine your process.

I hope this starts your lineup building in the right direction. Any questions, comments, or concerns feel free to hit me up in Discord or on Twitter @EdArias87

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DFS Streams and DFS Strategy Video

• Every day at 12:30 pm ET DFS n Donuts does a twitch.tv/TeamRiseorFall stream to highlight all sorts of strategy, research, game theory, lineup study, and more.
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