MLB DFS Top Hitters 4/12/24

1. Mike Trout (OF, Angels) – $5900

• Matchup: Angels @ Red Sox
• Stats: .311 xHR, 27.5% K%, .304 ISO, .413 xwOBA
• Why He’s a Top Play:
  • Power and Consistency: Trout’s exceptional .311 expected home runs (xHR) and .413 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) indicate his elite power-hitting and on-base skills.
  • Favorable Matchup: Facing Tanner Houck, who has a higher xwOBA (.350) against left-handers, gives Trout, a righty, the edge due to reverse splits.

2. Yordan Alvarez (OF, Astros) – $6000

• Matchup: Rangers @ Astros
• Stats: .391 xHR, 16.3% K%, .316 ISO, .473 xwOBA
• Why He’s a Top Play:
  • Dominant Hitting: Alvarez leads in expected home runs and boasts the highest xwOBA on today’s slate, highlighting his dominant hitting capabilities.
  • Weak Opposing Pitching: Dane Dunning’s higher xwOBA (.338 against left-handers) plays into Alvarez’s strengths, especially with his power from the left side.

3. Shohei Ohtani (1B/OF, Dodgers) – $6200

• Matchup: Padres @ Dodgers
• Stats: .398 xHR, 22.9% K%, .375 ISO, .446 xwOBA
• Why He’s a Top Play:
  • Elite Power and Plate Discipline: Ohtani’s .398 xHR and .446 xwOBA are testaments to his unmatched power and ability to get on base.
  • Advantageous Conditions: Against Michael King, who struggles more against right-handers, Ohtani’s left-handed power is likely to thrive.

4. Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF, Braves) – $6500

• Matchup: Braves @ Marlins
• Stats: .225 ISO, 15.6% K%, .455 xwOBA
• Why He’s a Top Play:
  • High On-Base Potential: Acuña’s .455 xwOBA is one of the highest, indicating his effectiveness at the plate.
  • Speed and Power: With a solid ISO and lower strikeout rate, Acuña is a dual threat in terms of both power hitting and base-running against Marlins’ pitchers.

5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, Blue Jays) – $5200

• Matchup: Rockies @ Blue Jays
• Stats: .204 ISO, 15.8% K%, .383 xwOBA
• Why He’s a Top Play:
  • Consistent Hitter: Guerrero’s lower strikeout rate and high xwOBA suggest he’s a reliable player for contact and power.
  • Matchup Edge: Facing Ryan Feltner, who shows vulnerability against right-handers (.288 xwOBA), Guerrero’s skills are likely to capitalize on any pitcher’s mistakes.

Key Insights:

• Weather and Wind: Always factor in the wind direction and speed, as it can influence the ball’s trajectory, especially for power hitters.
• Pitcher Matchups: A detailed look at opposing pitchers’ weaknesses, such as high xwOBA or ISO allowed, can give a clear advantage to certain hitters based on their handedness and hitting statistics.
• Stadium Factors: Consider the stadium, as some, like Coors Field or Camden Yards, are known to be more hitter-friendly.

With these insights and top picks, you’re armed to build a powerful DFS lineup that maximizes potential in today’s MLB games. Good luck!