PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The Charles Schwab Challenge 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft
We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. Make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
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Course Preview
Last week was nothing short of amazing with Lefty taking that W. But now we make our way back to Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This week we get a shorter field compared to the regular 158 golfers we’ve been getting. This week we will see a field of 121 golfers, including defending champion Daniel Berger and ranked number two, Justin Thomas. Colonial Country Club has 84 sand bunkers, six holes with water in play, and a dangerous 3″ rough. The historic cut line average at Colonial is +2, and we’ve seen scores range from -15 to -20 over the years. So we won’t be expecting the same carnage like we had last week at Kiawah Island.
Colonial Country Club is 7200 yards; par 70 played on Bentgrass greens. Meaning that the course will only have two par 5’s, but nothing to be too concerned about as this course will offer plenty of birdie opportunities. Six holes provide a 20-44% birdie rate. With danger lurking on the 5th and 9th hole, each hole looks at 20-23% in bogeys and up to 5% in double bogey.
The 5th hole is the most challenging hole and the most famous at Colonial, and the last of the “Horrible Horseshoe.” The tee shot must be precise due to the ditch to the left and a river on the right. Even a good tee shot leaves a long and narrow approach. Lastly, the 9th hole can get to potential double bogey numbers due to it being a MUST to hit it straight off the tee and avoid that big ol pond in front of the green with your approach.
The fairways at Colonial are narrow and considered difficult to hit, which means approach shots and keeping it on the fairway will be very important here. Now that’s not to say that you can’t bomb the course, but you definitely need accurate bombers and not just someone that sprays it.
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- P4: 400-450
PGA DFS FanDuel Targets
- Abraham Ancer ($11,400) – I absolutely love starting at this range. Not that I don’t like the very top, but I feel like this is Ancer’s week. Ancer has been performing this season at the highest of his career. He’s gained 1.22 total strokes in the last 66 rounds. More importantly, is his recent form. Over the previous eight rounds, he’s gained 2.81 total strokes, and in the last 16 rounds, he’s gained 2.51 total strokes. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Ancer is ranked 2nd in Driving Accuracy, 12th in Greens in Regulation, 23rd OTT, 27th T2G, and 33rd in Approach.
- Corey Conners ($11,000) – Don’t fix what’s not broken, right? I should just copy and paste what I have been writing about him the last six weeks, I swear. Corey placed 17th last week for the PGA Championship, and although he choked a bit on Friday, he still maintained to keep himself in the top 20 throughout the weekend. And I still find nothing wrong with going back to him. Let’s not forget that Corey is ranked 4th on Approach and 10th in Driving Accuracy.
PGA DFS DraftKings Targets
- Charley Hoffman ($8,700) – Hoffman is no different from Corey. Don’t fix what’s not broken. Hoffman has been having a phenomenal season. On the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Over the last five events, Hoff has placed 17th at the PGA Championship, 18th at Valspar, 18th at RBC, and 2nd at Valero. Hoff is also ranked 9th at Approach and 15th T2G.
- Matt Wallace ($8,200) – Matt has had a fantastic stretch this year, and I don’t mind going back to him this week. On the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Matt has gained 5.7 strokes T2G, 2.7 on APP, 1.6 OTT, and 1.4 ARG in the last five events. He also gains nearly 0.3 strokes on Bentgrass greens.
PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets
- Matt Kuchar (1.35X) – I went pretty far into course history for Kuchar, and he is one of those guys that is consistent here. Over the last ten years, he’s only missed the cut twice. And his recent form is nothing to write home about, but if he makes the cut, he usually sees a top 20 finish, so definitely a lot of upside.
- Vincent Whaley (TBDX) – I’m assuming SuperDraft hasn’t put Whaley in the pool because he just got the call after Oosty dropped out. But Whaley has been on a heater. Look, take this for what it’s worth, but the guy hasn’t missed a cut since February and has been raking in top 30s like it’s nothing. This includes courses like Wells Fargo, Valero Texas, and Honda. I very much like the upside here, but there is also a ton of risk here too.
PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content
Study Hub
Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
Course Correlation Model
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Important Rankings
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
Cash, GPP, Core Picks
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
Showdown Content
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
Consistency vs. Trends
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
Putting Data
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.
