MLB DFS Top Pitchers Main Slate 4/10/24

Dylan Cease – $10,200 vs. Chicago Cubs

• Matchup: The Cubs, despite a somewhat promising stat line against RHP (.339 xwOBA), are heading into Petco Park to face Cease, a strikeout machine.
• Why Cease? With a staggering K% of 31.7% against righties, Cease’s ability to rack up strikeouts is unmatched. Against a Cubs lineup that has some strikeout-prone hitters, he’s set for a big night.
• Statistical Backing: His excellent performance is underlined by a .304 xwOBA against right-handers, making him a tough matchup for the Cubs’ core bats like Happ and Suzuki who thrive against RHP.
• Park Factor: Petco Park is a pitcher-friendly venue, which further tilts the matchup in Cease’s favor.

Hunter Greene – $9,300 vs. Milwaukee Brewers

• Matchup: Hosting the Brewers, Greene finds himself in a favorable spot. The Brewers have power but also come with a high strikeout rate which Greene can exploit.
• Why Greene? Boasting a 33.6% K-rate against lefties and 27.2% against righties, Greene’s ability to send batters back to the dugout is elite.
• Statistical Backing: His .283 xwOBA against left-handed hitters is particularly enticing given the Brewers’ lineup that includes Yelich and other left-handed threats.
• Game Environment: The high strikeout potential of the Brewers’ lineup combined with Greene’s overpowering fastball-slider combo means DFS glory.

Marcus Stroman – $9,600 vs. Miami Marlins

• Matchup: The Marlins, traveling to Yankee Stadium, are up against Stroman who’s shown solid control and efficiency this season.
• Why Stroman? His balanced approach to both right and left-handed batters (.317 xwOBA against lefties and .314 against righties) positions him as a steady DFS play.
• Statistical Backing: Stroman’s ground ball tendencies (57% GB rate) should play well in Yankee Stadium, limiting the Marlins’ chances for big innings.
• Opponent’s Struggle: The Marlins’ lineup lacks consistent power, especially against pitchers with good ground ball rates, making Stroman a safer bet for a quality start.

Seth Lugo – $8,400 vs. Houston Astros

• Matchup: A risky play, but Lugo facing the Astros is a high-reward scenario. His performance against left-handers (.334 xwOBA) will be crucial.
• Why Lugo? Lugo’s ability to mix pitches effectively gives him an edge, even against a strong Astros lineup. His decent strikeout rates and control could turn this into a surprisingly good outing.
• Statistical Backing: With a .311 xwOBA against right-handers, he could navigate through the Astros’ righty-heavy lineup by exploiting matchups.
• Sleeper Pick: Considered a sleeper due to the tough matchup, Lugo’s lower ownership could be the difference in GPPs.

Key Points to Remember:

• Strikeouts Are King: Cease and Greene offer high strikeout upside, which is gold in DFS.
• Matchup and Venue: Stroman benefits from a pitcher-friendly Yankee Stadium and a favorable matchup against the Marlins.
• High-Risk, High-Reward: Lugo represents a gamble against the Astros, but with DFS, sometimes it’s the bold moves that pay off.

Tailor your DFS rosters with these insights, and watch as these pitchers potentially dominate tonight’s slate. Remember, in DFS, understanding the matchups and the underlying statistics can turn a good lineup into a great one. Good luck!